Democratic Leadership -- Is It Really There?

During this Democratic Primary season, the DNC, namely their chairman, Howard Dean, has a leadership role with the committee members in not only shaping the Democratic Party but to bring the nomination to closure at the Democratic National Convention.  Those leaders of the DNC are also responsible for a lot more leading up to the general election.  Leadership is about leading but those responsible for leading at the DNC failed the voters in Michigan and Florida when they penalized those states for early primaries.

 

In the case of Florida, a Republican governor and Republican controlled state legislature was responsible for making the decision to move the states primary early and the DNC fell for the trap and penalized the Florida voters.  Because of a lack of leadership at the very beginning, the DNC rules committee had to meet this weekend and made a decision of what to do about Michigan and Florida.  That decision will not satisfy the voters in those two states and it remains to be seen how that will affect the voters in the general election.

 

The second area of leadership failure falls to Obama.  He and his supporters have already made him the nominee of his party and he has already started his campaign for the general election.  However, he has recently let Senators McCain and Graham squeeze him.  Those two Republican senators told the public Obama needs to go to Iraq to see what is going on.  And sure enough, Obama jumped at the bait and his camp announced he would be going to Iraq.  Once again, the Republicans are controlling the debate on Iraq.  Does any member of congress, much less a candidate for President, really have to go to Iraq to discover that we still have 150,000 American troops there over WMD that did not exist?  If Obama can be manipulated that easily and he is the Democratic nominee, the party and the nation are in trouble.  A lack of experience equals a lack of leadership.  And leadership is about leading, not following.

A Way Out In The Democratic Primaries

It appears that neither Senator Clinton nor Senator Obama will have the 2025 delegates required to secure the Democratic Nomination for President after the primary season is over.  Howard Dean, the Democratic National Chairman, was quoted as saying that if that occurs, the two candidates would need to sit down and decide who the nominee would be.  Dean also has repeatedly said that he does not want a brokered convention.  

 

So what is fair for the candidates and the people who took time to express their support with their vote?  If neither candidate reaches the magic number of required delegates, I have a suggestion.  Let the delegates from Florida and Michigan be seated at the convention and cast their delegates in line with the outcome of their states primary election.  The candidates did not campaign in these states, so neither had the advantage over the other.  Let the winner of the state primary in each state get the super delegates of that state.  If neither candidate reaches the 2025 delegates needed after all that, let the candidate with the largest popular vote of all the primary states be declared the Democratic nominee.

 

I think that will be the fairest way since the vote of the people will control the outcome.  You can not get any more democratic than that.  Any suggestions?  I would like to hear some other thoughts, as I don't pretend to have all the answers.

The Only Way Barack Can Lose Iowa

Sen. Barack Obama, much to my dismay, looks poised to win the Iowa caucuses on January 3.  The big "Mo" (momentum) is on his side and he is leading in many recent Iowa polls.  Clinton and Edwards appear to be stuck in second and third place respectively, but with such a tight race and the volatile nature of the Iowa caucus, there is something that works to the advantage of Clinton and Edwards.  This same thing is the one and only way I could see Barack Obama losing Iowa.  So what is that "thing" of which I refer?  It's the youth vote, of course.

Sen. Clinton and Edwards have the top two traditional caucusing groups on their side.  Sen. Clinton has the 40+ women vote, which traditionally shows up in strong numbers on caucus night.  Edwards also has an important and consistent caucusing group---the labor, or union, vote.  And Barack's support.....the youth vote.  

Polls show Obama to have a tremendous amount of support among college students and other voters in the 18-34 demographic.  If Sen. Obama can get his many young supporters to show up, he will surely win.  The problem is that history is not on his side.  Only 10% of all caucus goers in 2004 were under the age 35; Obama draws much of his support from those same people.

We all remember what happened to Howard Dean in 2004.  At this point in 2003, with just 3 weeks until the caucus, Howard Dean was still the clear frontrunner.  The problem for Dean on the night of the caucus was that his core support consisted of voters under the age of 35 and they simply did not show up to caucus as the polls had suggested.  

As can be seen, the youth vote if far from reliable.  Many young voters show up at rallies for a candidate and even tell pollsters that they are "likely caucus attenders".  Yet, when the night of the caucus comes, the youth simply don't show up in big numbers.  Sadly, they often get distracted.  It should be noted that a big distraction for many young voters, particularly male, this year could potentially be the Orange Bowl, which will begin at about the same time as the caucus.  

Obama and his supporters have promised that this year will be different.  They say that the youth will show up and caucus.  Talk, however, is cheap.  Howard Dean and his campaign claimed the same thing in 2004 as did candidates in previous years.                                                                                                                               

My point: Obama is in the prime position to win the Iowa caucus, but he's not inevitable.  With a large chunk of his support being from younger voters, Obama leaves himself vulnerable.  If he can truly, as he says, bring in youth voters as has never been done before, Obama has this caucus in the bag.  But if only 10%, or even 15%, show up, Obama could be in deep trouble.  With the race so tight in Iowa, Obama, or any candidate for that matter, can not afford to not have their core supporters show up.  As Dean learned in '04, it's one thing to have supporters, it's a completely different thing to have them actually show up on a cold winter night to stand in a room for hours and caucus for you.  

Clinton and Edwards have reliable supporters who are traditional caucus goers; they should have no problem getting their people out.  The race in Iowa, and possibly the nationally, depends on how many of Obama's youth supporters actually show up.  If he gets them out there, he'll win.  If he doesn't, he could be the Dean of '08.  Only time will tell.