President Obama would like to see the tax extension of those tax cuts for those making $200,000-250,000.00 or less per year and let the rest expire for good reason. Since the republicans took over the House the President seems to be willing to compromise his position, but that would be unwise because of the present economic and fiscal condition of the country. The sunset provision on the tax reflected the fact that some adjustment might have to be made when the time came, and the time has come, so now is the time to have courage and face facts.
Republican Presidents and their party have been wrong for asserting that tax cuts for the wealthy create jobs. That has been proven wrong many times over and more recently on President Bush's watch when his administration ended up with the worst job creating record since the great depression. Those tax cuts are still in effect now and are not creating any jobs. Thank heaven for President Obama's stimulus package and policy that have reversed those record job losses under the Bush administration.
The tax cuts were ill advised at the time of passage because it reduced needed revenue and put the country once again on a path to record deficit spending after record surpluses. That money could have been better spent to reduce debt, to help keep Social Security and Medicare solvent and to make sure the nation continued to balance the federal budget like the Clinton administration did. If that had happened our country and its people would not be facing the economic and job problem that are still with us today. Nor would we be facing the devastating effect of the $6.1 trillion the Bush administration added to the national debt in just 8 years in office. (Treasury Report)
If the tax cuts for the wealthy are extended it will only continue to transfer wealth from the middle class to the wealthy that began with the Reagan administration. The republican party will only be satisfied when the federal government is bankrupt. Their policies, action and talk has proven that already. The 20 year rampage of deficit spending and debt by the Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43 administrations have put the country and its people in a position of having to take drastic measures to get out of the hole they created.
President Obama has to stand up to congress, especially the republican House and take the country and its people on a course in the opposite direction of republican conservative ideology. To do other wise will only finish what the republicans started. It is time for the President to be counted and expose the failed republican record every time they open their lying mouths.
Note: See my commentary on job creation for the past 80 years in a recent post.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Louisiana's David Vitter and Steve Scalise: The Problem When You are A Nobody
They both fit President Truman's description to a tee when he said the republicans stand for nothing. The President was right then and fifty years later his words still ring true for the republican party, Vitter and Scalise. They have no positive accomplishments to offer the American people or the country even when their party controls the White House and congress.
Vitter and Scalise like to talk about controlling federal spending and federal deficits, but their party holds the record for both. Ditto creating debt, ditto record job losses, ditto failed economy and it all happened on their watch. Like Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43, Vitter and Scalise would like nothing better than to bankrupt the federal government. They have never seen a republican deficit they did not love.
When you belong to the party of no, it is a reflection of not being able to compete with your peers. And when you want to see your Presidents policy and the country fail like Vitter and Scalise do it is a sign of weakness, lack of character and courage. Its hell when you have to attack some one else in order to get attention. And hell is even worse when you have no record to run on. That says it all.
Vitter and Scalise like to talk about controlling federal spending and federal deficits, but their party holds the record for both. Ditto creating debt, ditto record job losses, ditto failed economy and it all happened on their watch. Like Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43, Vitter and Scalise would like nothing better than to bankrupt the federal government. They have never seen a republican deficit they did not love.
When you belong to the party of no, it is a reflection of not being able to compete with your peers. And when you want to see your Presidents policy and the country fail like Vitter and Scalise do it is a sign of weakness, lack of character and courage. Its hell when you have to attack some one else in order to get attention. And hell is even worse when you have no record to run on. That says it all.
The Louisiana Department of Revenue's Tax Exemption Budget
Is a 400 plus page budget that lists over $7 billion of tax exemptions and tax breaks for individuals and companies each year. This writer made several commentaries in the past that deal with the subject matter. Jindal and the legislature has kept their hands off this give away of the tax payers money while at the same time cutting the budget concerning higher education and health care in order to balance the state past several budgets that were supposed to be balanced.
The Times Picayune of 11/7 gave two examples of the above waste. (1) $660,000.00 last year for tax reductions to liquor and wine dealers because they paid their taxes accurately and timely. How about that, I wonder how the average tax payer feels about this $660,000.00 give away just because liquor and wine dealers paid their taxes on time. Does that mean they were delinquent before they received this special treatment. And what does the average tax payer receive for paying his taxes on time. The Shaft.
(2) $170 million in investment tax credits and other breaks annually for insurers that are tracked by the Department of Insurance. This waste of tax payers money is the height of obscenity. Insurers raise their rates at will and make tons of money and they get these kinds of tax breaks at the expense of taxpayers who are always faced with premium increases from their insurers.
Jindal and the legislature have not found the courage or back bone to eliminate this $7 billion give away to the people who least need it and really do something for the average Louisiana citizen. As I have commented many time here in "politidose", conservative republicans get into the average citizens pocket a hundred different kind of ways. Their slogan, no new taxes is part of their con game. Unfortunately too many voters fall for this game they play. They are ignorant of the facts and do not take the time to really absorb what is really going on in government. What a shame.
The Times Picayune of 11/7 gave two examples of the above waste. (1) $660,000.00 last year for tax reductions to liquor and wine dealers because they paid their taxes accurately and timely. How about that, I wonder how the average tax payer feels about this $660,000.00 give away just because liquor and wine dealers paid their taxes on time. Does that mean they were delinquent before they received this special treatment. And what does the average tax payer receive for paying his taxes on time. The Shaft.
(2) $170 million in investment tax credits and other breaks annually for insurers that are tracked by the Department of Insurance. This waste of tax payers money is the height of obscenity. Insurers raise their rates at will and make tons of money and they get these kinds of tax breaks at the expense of taxpayers who are always faced with premium increases from their insurers.
Jindal and the legislature have not found the courage or back bone to eliminate this $7 billion give away to the people who least need it and really do something for the average Louisiana citizen. As I have commented many time here in "politidose", conservative republicans get into the average citizens pocket a hundred different kind of ways. Their slogan, no new taxes is part of their con game. Unfortunately too many voters fall for this game they play. They are ignorant of the facts and do not take the time to really absorb what is really going on in government. What a shame.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
The Congressional Elections: No Mandate For The GOP
The republicans recaptured the House in the November 2nd. election but there was no mandate as the republicans and Fox News claimed. It also was not a rejection of President Obama's policies to move the country forward. The same voters who put the republicans back in power in the House, voted to keep the democrats in power in the Senate. Checkmate, but no mandate.
Since the election the republican leadership has made many public statements about not compromising with the President, scuttle health care legislation and letting the President know their sole goal is to make him a one term President. Of course that is the same position the republicans took after the President's first day in office.
President Obama set up a meeting later this month with the republican leadership but should now cancel that meeting since they can not show him any respect. The President should show leadership on the subject and tell the republican leaders he will meet with them when they publicly refute their own statements and stop acting like a bunch of asses. The President should also make sure the republicans know he does not take the elections as a mandate. That will come in 2012 when he runs for reelection.
The President should take advantage of the fact that the republicans have no record of accomplishments on balancing the federal budget, creating jobs or creating a sound economy. They also have no record of a sustained low unemployment rate. It is the democratic Presidents that excel in those area's and President Obama should remind the people every day.
The republicans see that the economy is picking up speed and soon hiring will bring down the unemployment rate. They hate that and will be trying to avoid anything good happening for the people and the country. The President is in a position to tell the republicans to shove it when they try to reduce taxes again for the wealthy. Bush and the republicans had their chance with two tax cuts that gave the country record deficits, debt, a devastated economy and record job losses.
Expose the republicans for what they are Mr. President, liars and a fraud.
Since the election the republican leadership has made many public statements about not compromising with the President, scuttle health care legislation and letting the President know their sole goal is to make him a one term President. Of course that is the same position the republicans took after the President's first day in office.
President Obama set up a meeting later this month with the republican leadership but should now cancel that meeting since they can not show him any respect. The President should show leadership on the subject and tell the republican leaders he will meet with them when they publicly refute their own statements and stop acting like a bunch of asses. The President should also make sure the republicans know he does not take the elections as a mandate. That will come in 2012 when he runs for reelection.
The President should take advantage of the fact that the republicans have no record of accomplishments on balancing the federal budget, creating jobs or creating a sound economy. They also have no record of a sustained low unemployment rate. It is the democratic Presidents that excel in those area's and President Obama should remind the people every day.
The republicans see that the economy is picking up speed and soon hiring will bring down the unemployment rate. They hate that and will be trying to avoid anything good happening for the people and the country. The President is in a position to tell the republicans to shove it when they try to reduce taxes again for the wealthy. Bush and the republicans had their chance with two tax cuts that gave the country record deficits, debt, a devastated economy and record job losses.
Expose the republicans for what they are Mr. President, liars and a fraud.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
An Uninformed Electorate: Emotions Over Facts
A case can be made that voters in the November congressional election voted their emotions rather than checking a candidate and his party's record. One can even say that the constant personal and political attacks on a daily basis by the republican party in general and their leaders inside and outside of congress in particular against President Obama and democrats played a major role for emotions to take over at the voting booth. The conservative news media and the wealth lobby also played a major role to inflame those same emotions.
One can also understand how emotions can run high when the economy is not in full swing and jobs are hard to find. That is no excuse however for not being an informed voter. If jobs and the economy are really what was behind returning republicans to a majority in the House, the voters forgot history and the republicans past record, especially their record under President Bush which still should be fresh in their minds.
The Bush Presidency and the republican party who rubber stamped his failed economic and fiscal policies created economic devastation that takes the country back to the Hoover administration and the great depression. It is ironic that many of those republicans who rubber stamped Bush's failed policy will be leading the House once again.
The people's emotions also over shadowed the fact that the Obama administrations policies reversed the massive job losses under Bush, ended the recession and a negative GDP for the economy. No one can question the slowness of the recovery but should understand it is related to the severity of what happened to the economy. Emotions will not hasten the recovery and the Obama administration has never stood pat on trying to create more jobs for the people. What was lacking was help from the republicans in congress and their desire to see the economy fail on Obama's watch.
After the election Tuesday the republican leadership said they would not compromise with the President. So what is new? Is that what the voters voted for? Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell told the Heritage Foundation President Obama would have to come to him. Like conservatives in general, McConnell thinks he is elite and better than anyone else. The President should tell McConnell to go play with himself. (This writer would be a little more nasty)
The President needs to take another page out of President Truman's book on how to deal with the republican party. President Truman said, "To Hell with them, when history is written, they will be the sons of bitches, not I." Give the republicans hell President Obama, you have the power to do so.
One can also understand how emotions can run high when the economy is not in full swing and jobs are hard to find. That is no excuse however for not being an informed voter. If jobs and the economy are really what was behind returning republicans to a majority in the House, the voters forgot history and the republicans past record, especially their record under President Bush which still should be fresh in their minds.
The Bush Presidency and the republican party who rubber stamped his failed economic and fiscal policies created economic devastation that takes the country back to the Hoover administration and the great depression. It is ironic that many of those republicans who rubber stamped Bush's failed policy will be leading the House once again.
The people's emotions also over shadowed the fact that the Obama administrations policies reversed the massive job losses under Bush, ended the recession and a negative GDP for the economy. No one can question the slowness of the recovery but should understand it is related to the severity of what happened to the economy. Emotions will not hasten the recovery and the Obama administration has never stood pat on trying to create more jobs for the people. What was lacking was help from the republicans in congress and their desire to see the economy fail on Obama's watch.
After the election Tuesday the republican leadership said they would not compromise with the President. So what is new? Is that what the voters voted for? Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell told the Heritage Foundation President Obama would have to come to him. Like conservatives in general, McConnell thinks he is elite and better than anyone else. The President should tell McConnell to go play with himself. (This writer would be a little more nasty)
The President needs to take another page out of President Truman's book on how to deal with the republican party. President Truman said, "To Hell with them, when history is written, they will be the sons of bitches, not I." Give the republicans hell President Obama, you have the power to do so.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Job Creation For Presidential Terms: 1929-2008
This writer has commented in the past how Republican administrations have no record of balancing the federal budget since Eisenhower in 1960 and no record of creating jobs to sustain the economy on their watch. Republicans like to say they are better at creating jobs but the record and facts say otherwise. Republicans also say tax cuts create jobs but Bush's two tax cuts did no such thing and he left office with the lowest job creation record since the great depression with only 1.1 millions jobs created in eight years.
Below gives the reader the job creation record of those Presidents who served from 1929 to 2008, a period of 80 years. Both Democrats and Republicans served 40 years each during that time period.
Herbert Hoover 1929-1933 Four Years Jobs Lost 6.4 million
Franklin Roosevelt 1933-1945 Twelve Years Jobs Created 16.2 million
Roosevelt-Truman 1945-1953 Eight Years Jobs Created 8.2 million
Dwight Eisenhower 1953-1961 Eight Years Jobs Created 3.5 million
Kennedy-Johnson 1961-1969 Eight Years Jobs Created 15.4 million
Nixon-Ford 1969-1977 Eight Years Jobs Created 11.2 million
Jimmy Carter 1977-1981 Four Years Jobs Created 10.3 million
Ronald Reagan 1981-1989 Eight Years Jobs Created 16.1 million
George H.W. Bush 1989-1993 Four Years Jobs Created 2.5 million
Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Eight Years Jobs Created 22.7 million
George W. Bush 2001-2008 Eight Years Jobs Created 1.1 million
The numbers reveal that Democratic administrations out performed Republican administrations by a wide margin 72.8 million jobs to the Republicans 28 million jobs. In other words job creation under Democratic administrations can be described as robust and under Republican administrations as anemic at best. (So much for tax cuts.)
It should be noted that job creation under President Clinton's eight years in office exceeded the combined total of jobs created under Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43 in the 20 years they served. Also noted is the fact that the Clinton and Carter administrations (12 years) created more jobs than all the above Republican administrations in the 40 years they served.
The above job creation numbers prove with out a doubt how Republicans are willing to lie over and over again to the American people and the nation. It is their M.O. and extends to almost all of their rhetoric including deficit spending and debt.
Case closed.
Job Creation information above taken from Wikipedia.
Below gives the reader the job creation record of those Presidents who served from 1929 to 2008, a period of 80 years. Both Democrats and Republicans served 40 years each during that time period.
Herbert Hoover 1929-1933 Four Years Jobs Lost 6.4 million
Franklin Roosevelt 1933-1945 Twelve Years Jobs Created 16.2 million
Roosevelt-Truman 1945-1953 Eight Years Jobs Created 8.2 million
Dwight Eisenhower 1953-1961 Eight Years Jobs Created 3.5 million
Kennedy-Johnson 1961-1969 Eight Years Jobs Created 15.4 million
Nixon-Ford 1969-1977 Eight Years Jobs Created 11.2 million
Jimmy Carter 1977-1981 Four Years Jobs Created 10.3 million
Ronald Reagan 1981-1989 Eight Years Jobs Created 16.1 million
George H.W. Bush 1989-1993 Four Years Jobs Created 2.5 million
Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Eight Years Jobs Created 22.7 million
George W. Bush 2001-2008 Eight Years Jobs Created 1.1 million
The numbers reveal that Democratic administrations out performed Republican administrations by a wide margin 72.8 million jobs to the Republicans 28 million jobs. In other words job creation under Democratic administrations can be described as robust and under Republican administrations as anemic at best. (So much for tax cuts.)
It should be noted that job creation under President Clinton's eight years in office exceeded the combined total of jobs created under Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43 in the 20 years they served. Also noted is the fact that the Clinton and Carter administrations (12 years) created more jobs than all the above Republican administrations in the 40 years they served.
The above job creation numbers prove with out a doubt how Republicans are willing to lie over and over again to the American people and the nation. It is their M.O. and extends to almost all of their rhetoric including deficit spending and debt.
Case closed.
Job Creation information above taken from Wikipedia.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
The Economy Is Indeed Improving
There has been some good news lately concerning the economy but the people don't hear much about it because of the congressional elections. The news media's attention is the hype that go with elections and of course those candidates who are running against the President do not want to talk about any economic good news.
Unemployment claims are down across the nation as a whole. The auto industry just announced they will be opening up some closed assembly lines and hire back workers. Overall retail sales have been up and it is anticipated that department stores across the nation will be hiring more people for the holiday season. Many of those jobs will be part time but things are looking up for retail sales. Analysis for the oil and gas industry just announced that offshore operators were getting ready to jump back into the Gulf of Mexico deep water drilling big time. U.S. manufacturing out put has increased for the past 15 straight months. A sure sign that the economy is growing.
General Electric's CEO Jeffrey Immelt said his company will soon place the largest order in history for electric vehicles. "Tens of thousands" of the vehicles in about a week. He said half of GE's sales force of 45,000 will drive electric vehicles. This will fit in with GE's plan to expand its clean energy technology. That spending will create jobs and fall in line with the Obama's administration policy of switching to clean energy and creating an industry that will take the country into the future.
The negative voices about the economy, the stimulus and the President's policies have been proven wrong. It may be too late to save some political jobs in today's election but once again it will be a democratic administration who turned things around for the country and its people.
If the republican party takes control of one of the Houses of Congress they will keep up their attacks and try to continue to kill any legislation proposed by Obama. The President will need to deal with the republican party like President Truman did and call them out for what they are. Liars and creators of debt.
Unemployment claims are down across the nation as a whole. The auto industry just announced they will be opening up some closed assembly lines and hire back workers. Overall retail sales have been up and it is anticipated that department stores across the nation will be hiring more people for the holiday season. Many of those jobs will be part time but things are looking up for retail sales. Analysis for the oil and gas industry just announced that offshore operators were getting ready to jump back into the Gulf of Mexico deep water drilling big time. U.S. manufacturing out put has increased for the past 15 straight months. A sure sign that the economy is growing.
General Electric's CEO Jeffrey Immelt said his company will soon place the largest order in history for electric vehicles. "Tens of thousands" of the vehicles in about a week. He said half of GE's sales force of 45,000 will drive electric vehicles. This will fit in with GE's plan to expand its clean energy technology. That spending will create jobs and fall in line with the Obama's administration policy of switching to clean energy and creating an industry that will take the country into the future.
The negative voices about the economy, the stimulus and the President's policies have been proven wrong. It may be too late to save some political jobs in today's election but once again it will be a democratic administration who turned things around for the country and its people.
If the republican party takes control of one of the Houses of Congress they will keep up their attacks and try to continue to kill any legislation proposed by Obama. The President will need to deal with the republican party like President Truman did and call them out for what they are. Liars and creators of debt.
Monday, November 1, 2010
The Rosetta Stone To Bill O'Reilly Etal
Etal is used at the end of a name to indicate "and others." In this case I am referring to the likes of Sean Hannity, Neil Cavuto and Rush Limbaugh who fit O'Reilly's right wing ideology. I was once encouraged to listen to those folks over a period of time to understand where they were coming from but a few minutes was enough for me.
When people in their profession devote their whole show to personal attacks and negativity it is easy to understand their lack of character and courage. One does not need to be educated to constantly be engaged in their kind of journalism. That speaks load and clear about their problem. They feel inadequate. Lets just look at one area where their expressions always show their feelings of being inadequate. Many democrats who have been their target of personal attacks and negative comments wore the uniform of their country during their generations war. O'Reilly etal cut and ran during their generations war and never wore the uniform of their country. Their motive is to try and destroy the character of those they attack because they feel so inadequate when they compare their personal lives to those liberals that did the patriotic thing and served their country.
Bill O'Reilly even said on his show a few years ago to Bill Maher. "The reason I did not join the military during the Viet Nam war was because I had a buddy who came back from Viet Nam and told me not to join. What a pitiful excuse to cut and run. It fits O'Reilly's character.
O'Reilly etal can not debate the issues. That is another reason for their personal attacks and negative reporting. They also mislead their viewing audience with inaccurate statements that have been pointed out on many occasions. Another indication of their inadequate feelings. That is also why the whole time ( 8 years) Bush ran the country they spent their time attacking democrats. They could not articulate what the Bush administration stood for or accomplished. They dare not touch upon the record deficit spending and debt Bush left the country to dangle in and the record recession and job losses Bush presided over.
It must be hell to feel so inadequate and hide behind a phony ideology of personal attacks and negative reporting. But the real telling story behind their feeling of being inadequate is they want badly to see the United States fail on the democratic watch. They care nothing about the country and its people. What a sad bunch they are. The economy and job creation is coming back on the democratic watch and they are scared to death because it will remind the people once again what party has a record of economic accomplishments.
O'Reilly etal news media ratings may be high but that only reflects the fact that most of their audience are followers and not leaders, in other words ditto heads who can not think for themselves. Its really hell when you have no self esteem.
When people in their profession devote their whole show to personal attacks and negativity it is easy to understand their lack of character and courage. One does not need to be educated to constantly be engaged in their kind of journalism. That speaks load and clear about their problem. They feel inadequate. Lets just look at one area where their expressions always show their feelings of being inadequate. Many democrats who have been their target of personal attacks and negative comments wore the uniform of their country during their generations war. O'Reilly etal cut and ran during their generations war and never wore the uniform of their country. Their motive is to try and destroy the character of those they attack because they feel so inadequate when they compare their personal lives to those liberals that did the patriotic thing and served their country.
Bill O'Reilly even said on his show a few years ago to Bill Maher. "The reason I did not join the military during the Viet Nam war was because I had a buddy who came back from Viet Nam and told me not to join. What a pitiful excuse to cut and run. It fits O'Reilly's character.
O'Reilly etal can not debate the issues. That is another reason for their personal attacks and negative reporting. They also mislead their viewing audience with inaccurate statements that have been pointed out on many occasions. Another indication of their inadequate feelings. That is also why the whole time ( 8 years) Bush ran the country they spent their time attacking democrats. They could not articulate what the Bush administration stood for or accomplished. They dare not touch upon the record deficit spending and debt Bush left the country to dangle in and the record recession and job losses Bush presided over.
It must be hell to feel so inadequate and hide behind a phony ideology of personal attacks and negative reporting. But the real telling story behind their feeling of being inadequate is they want badly to see the United States fail on the democratic watch. They care nothing about the country and its people. What a sad bunch they are. The economy and job creation is coming back on the democratic watch and they are scared to death because it will remind the people once again what party has a record of economic accomplishments.
O'Reilly etal news media ratings may be high but that only reflects the fact that most of their audience are followers and not leaders, in other words ditto heads who can not think for themselves. Its really hell when you have no self esteem.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Election Day 2010 Predictions
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Republicans are poised to win control over the House of Representatives. To do so, they will need to win a net of 39 seats. In the previous wave election of 1994, Republicans picked up 54. This years seems no different. My guess is that the GOP picks up between 49 and 60 seats, although a net gain of ten more or ten less is not implausible. There isn’t much of a race-by-race analysis to take place here as House races are a lot less about local issues than Senate and Governor races. A horrible economy compared with tepid approval for the President means Republicans will win 75% or so of competitive seats. The challenge, however, will be retaining these seats in 2012, when the economy should have improved and Obama’s reelection will draw out young and minority voters that propelled the now endangered Democrats to victory in 2008. It’s not impossible to conceive that the wave that pushes so many Republicans into the House this year will leave only a few left after 2012 when the wave recedes.
THE SENATE
Overview: The Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to control the Senate. The following are the most competitive races (all currently held by Democrats), in order least likely to flip to most likely, along with my predictions:
1. Deleware
This is the battle for Joe Biden’s Senate seat. Christine O’Donnel is the GOP nominee, while New Castle County Executive Chris Coons is the Democrat’s. Had Congressman Mike Castle defeated tea partier O’Donnel for the nomination (as virtually everyone had expected), Castle would win this seat hands down (and Republicans would have a very good chance to win the Senate). But O’Donnel represents the extreme wing of the extreme faction of the GOP. She has no chance of winning in a moderate state like Deleware. Coons (D) wins.
2. Connecticut:
With the retirement of Chris Dodd, Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is battling Republican Linda McMahon. McMahon, the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has run a horrible campaign and lags by about 8 points in the polls. Blumenthal (D) wins.
3. California:
Barbara Boxer, a long time incumbent and one of the most liberal U.S. senators, is facing a tough re-election against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Although this race will be much, much closer than the previous two, the strong democratic lean of California along with Fiorina’s abysmal campaigning should give Boxer the victory. Boxer (D) wins.
4. West Virginia:
Republicans saw a great pick-up opportunity when Senator Robert Byrd died earlier this year. Governor Joe Manchin won the Democratic nomination and faces Republican businessman John Raese. In a normal year, Manchin, the most popular governor in the country with a 70% approval rating, would win easily. But, Raese has been able to successfully portray Manchin as another vote for Obama if elected. Still, Manchin’s immense popularity should pull him over the finish line, but it will be close. Manchin (D) wins.
5. Washington.
Longtime incumbent Patty Murray is being challenged by businessman Dino Rossi. In a situation reversed from just about any other state this cycle, both candidates are well liked by the public. Polls have been all over the place, with some showing Murray leading by double digits and others with Rossi ahead a few points. While Washington is a fairly liberal state, the GOP wave is still a threat. I’ll go with Murray, but if the wave is large enough, Rossi can pull it out. Murray (D) wins.
6. Illinois.
This is for Obama’s Senate seat and pits Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulious against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk. Again, this should be an easy Democratic win in a normal year, but this is not a normal year. In addition, both candidates are severely flawed: Giannoulias has ties to mob bankers, while Kirk has lied several times about his military record. Polls show Kirk up by about 4 points. The major caveat, however, is that about 15% of the electorate remains undecided, even with only a couple days left. The race will be decided by those undecideds. My hunch is that they will break for the Democrat, and Giannoulious should eek out a win, but barely. It would be no surprise, however, if Kirk wins. Giannoulious (D) wins.
7. Colorado.
Its Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet vs. Republican district attorney Ken Buck. Had anyone but Buck gotten the nomination, they would be ahead by double digits, but Buck is a seriously flawed candidate, making many extreme statements that have come back to haunt him. Polls have shown both candidates literally tied for the past month. Still, Colorado is a fairly conservative state, and the GOP wave should put Buck over the top. Buck (R) wins.
8. Pennsylvania.
It’s a battle of Congressmen as Joe Sestak (D) battles Pat Toomey (R). Toomey held about an 8 point lead since the start of the campaign, but recently Sestak has improved his position. This race will come down to turnout; if Sestak can get a high enough turnout in Philly and Pittsburg, he can possibly still win, but it looks unlikely at this point. Toomey (R) wins.
9. Wisconsin.
Russ Feingold (D) seems likely to lose his seat to businessman Ron Johnson. Although Feingold remains popular, this is a case of the GOP wave just being too heigh to overcome in a swing state like Wisconsin. Johnson (R) wins.
The Ultimate Showdown --- Nevada.
I put Nevada separate from the list because it really does deserve its unique spot. It’s as much of a coin flip as you can get. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is incredibly unpopular as Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. He was considered dead-on-arrival for much of the past two years. Then, in June, in a shocking upset, tea party favorite Sharron Angle defeated establishment Republican Sue Lowden for the Republican nomination. Suddenly, Reid went from being down double digits to being tied. In recent weeks, however, Angle has moved into a slight lead. If Reid can get his base out, and he does have the most impressive get-out-the-vote organization in the nation, he can pull it out. Also, there is an option on the Nevada ballot for “none-of-the above,” which could get as much as five or six percent of the vote, considering both Reid and Angle have unfavorable ratings in the 50s. Out of all the predictions, I am most unsure about this one, but after overlooking the early voting numbers, it looks like the Reid machine is hard at work, so I’ll say...Reid (D) wins.
Conclusion:
In the end, its not enough for the GOP. They will make significant gains in the Senate, winning the seats I predicted here as well as picking up Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota, which simply aren’t competitive. The Democrats will hold on in the Senate, the only question is, will Reid still be the majority leader? I predict he will win, but if doesn’t, look for Chuch Schumer of New York to be the new Majority Leader.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Another First For Politidose
I have written several past commentaries, the latest dated April 8, 2008 (yes, way back then) titled The Iraq-Iran Alliance and pointed out no matter how and when the Iraq war ends, Iraq and Iran will be close allies and the fruits of the billions of dollars the U.S. spent to rebuild Iraq will be enjoyed by Iraq and Iran. Now comes a story out of the Associated Press dated 10/22/2010 that reports the following.
American influence has so dwindled in Iraq over the last several months that Iraqi lawmakers and political leaders say they no longer follow Washington's advice for forming a government. Instead, Iraqis are turning to neighboring nations, and especially Iran, for guidance, casting doubt on the future of the American role in this strategic country after a grinding war that killed more than 4,400 U.S. soldiers.
The March parliamentary elections in Iraq failed to produce a winner and Iraq has failed to heed the U.S. advise to form a government. Iraqi politicians say they will pick new leaders on their own timetable. Keep in mind the Sunni backed political coalition won the most votes in the March election and Al-Sadr, whose hardline Shiite followers are close to Iran has been talking to Iraq's al-MAliki to form a new government.
The Bush administration outsmarted itself when it started a war and occupation in Iraq over WMD that did not exits and tried to remake Iraq in the warped image Bush created. The American loss of lives, the wounded, the financial cost to the U.S. and its people are a tragedy that will occupy our thoughts for a very long time. The U.S. and its people deserve better.
American influence has so dwindled in Iraq over the last several months that Iraqi lawmakers and political leaders say they no longer follow Washington's advice for forming a government. Instead, Iraqis are turning to neighboring nations, and especially Iran, for guidance, casting doubt on the future of the American role in this strategic country after a grinding war that killed more than 4,400 U.S. soldiers.
The March parliamentary elections in Iraq failed to produce a winner and Iraq has failed to heed the U.S. advise to form a government. Iraqi politicians say they will pick new leaders on their own timetable. Keep in mind the Sunni backed political coalition won the most votes in the March election and Al-Sadr, whose hardline Shiite followers are close to Iran has been talking to Iraq's al-MAliki to form a new government.
The Bush administration outsmarted itself when it started a war and occupation in Iraq over WMD that did not exits and tried to remake Iraq in the warped image Bush created. The American loss of lives, the wounded, the financial cost to the U.S. and its people are a tragedy that will occupy our thoughts for a very long time. The U.S. and its people deserve better.
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