John Edwards' campaign is putting all their money on the first-in-the-nation caucus, Iowa, even at the risk of losing New Hampshire. Edwards has spent more than twice as much effort in Iowa than in New Hampshire. And it could be with good reason, for Edwards' country personality has more appeal to Iowa voters than in New Hampshire. Also the populist message, which Edwards is currently running on, is much more appealing to Iowa residents than those in New Hampshire, as New Hampshire is one of the richer states in this country.
You must give John Edwards his credit though, he is polling very well in Iowa, in fact it is the only state in which he has been able to poll well against Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But Edwards may have to switch to a plan "B", as Clinton and Obama are rising in the polls in Iowa. In the most recent survey, Edwards leads the pack with 26%, down 8% from a few months ago. Clinton and Obama poll at 25% and 19% respectively. While we have seen candidates use a win in Iowa in the past to propel them through New Hampshire and beyond, Edwards needs to have at least some organization in New Hampshire. At the rate he is going right now, Edwards could win Iowa and still lose badly in New Hampshire. But at the same time, Edwards knows that Iowa is a must win situation for him. If he doesn't win in Iowa, he won't win anywhere else. The question for the Edwards campaign is how do they distribute their efforts. My personal suggestion would be 60% in Iowa, 40% in New Hampshire. But the bottom line is that Edwards must spend more time in New Hampshire and must get better organized there if he wants a possible Iowa win momentum to push him through. And let it be known that I called it back in August: If Edwards loses Iowa, he is out of the race; he has no chance of winning; and if Clinton wins Iowa, forget it, she's the nominee, hands down!
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