At a Christian Conservative Conference, organized by the Family Research council, Gov. Mitt Romney won a straw poll with 27.6% of the "value voter's" votes. Mike Huckabee, who in my opinion is one of the strongest GOP candidates, finished at a very close second with 27.1%. Ron Paul came in third with 15% favoring him.
It proved to be a disappointing night for the two national frontrunners, however. Fred Thompson, who was hoping for the support of the Christian right to propel his campaign, only received about 9%. Rudy Giuliani, whose campaign banked on his (so called) national security credentials to overcome the social issues when it comes to winning over Christian conservatives, finished with under 2%.
Several important things strike me from the results of the straw poll. Now obviously, this isn't even close to all the Christian Conservative voters' support, but it is meaningful. It tells who the "value voter" community is drifting towards. First, I 'll be honest, I was shocked that Romney finished first. I thought for sure his flip-flop on abortion would keep him from being the favorite among Christians. Mike Huckabee, finishing a strong second, illustrates a trend in the campaign----his growing support. If Huckabee can finish strong in the early primaries, he might just be able to win enough Christian votes in the Southern states to win the GOP nomination. Another major upset has to be the fact that Ron Paul came in third. I could honestly see, if Rudy becomes the nominee, that Paul would run as a third party, anti-war, pro-life candidate and get the backing of some Christian conservatives. This could have the Nader effect on the GOP in '08 in some key battle ground states.
Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani can not be too happy tonight. If Fred can not rally up the Christian right, I don't see how he has a shot at the nomination. I think, as we get closer to January, that Huckabee will slowly over come Thompson in the polls and will prove to be the candidate of choice for the Christian Right. And finally we can see that Rudy is not winning over the social conservatives. Rudy himself has stated in the past that the way he will win the nomination is by convincing "value voters" that, while he might not be as socially conservative as they may like, he is the toughest candidate on national security. Well it seems that they're not buying it. I predict as we get closer to the primaries, and more people start paying close attention to the race, Rudy will lose some support once people know his positions.
One thing is for sure coming out of this conference----it is essentially a battle between Romney and Huckabee for the Christian Right vote in the primaries. Also it's clear that Rudy is not going to get a majority of Christian votes and that Fred is, slowly but surly, fading away.
4 comments :
The vote did not surprise me. The order did. I thought Paul or Huckabee would come in first in the voting. Romney's strong point is that he is a good speaker. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out down the rode.
It'll also be interesting to see how a Mormon does in the bible belt of the south. If Romney can't carry the "solid south", the GOP doesn't have a chance. If the GOP loses even a small number of southern states, they can't possibly make that loss up anywhere else.
On the same thought and incorporating it into another post.... If Gore had been able to carry his own home state of Tennessee in 2000, hanging chads, blacks being purged from the voting lists, butterfly ballots and all of the other voting irregularities in Florida would have been of no consequence. The Democrats need to find a few chinks in the "solid South" if they ever want to be the dominate party that they used to be.
^well, looking into current polling, the democrats, if Hillary is the nominee, will carry Arkansas. She leads Huckabee with about 15 points, and the other major candidates by about 20. So I do expect the dems to win Arkansas and it looks like Virginia is moving democrat. Just winning those two states will give the dems the win, regardless of how they do in Ohio & Florida, which, by the way, they look like they will win.
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