The Iowa Straw Poll: who finished strong, and who's going home?

Well one day after the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, one thing is clear, Mitt Romney's win was neither surprising nor meaningful. With the top 3 front-runners, Guiliani, Thompson, and McCain, not participating, Romney was the only candidate with a significant amount of money in his pocket. And it is actually pretty sad when you have to spend $3 to 5 million just to come out on top when your biggest threat is Mike Huckabee. Guiliani and McCain were smart; they knew that if they didn't take take part in the poll, they would de-value a Mitt Romney win. Now people look at Mitt Romney winning and can say, "so what? Rudy, McCain, and Fred weren't even there, he was the default choice." While I don't agree with Guiliani or McCain skipping the Straw Poll, they knew that they couldn't afford to be beaten by Mitt Romney and without them there, Romney's win would mean a lot less.

Now onto the other candidates. Mike Huckabee did well, yet he was always the favorite to come in at number two. He had been polling increasingly well in Iowa, most recently tying with John McCain. His win was no doubt a shot in the arm that could help his campaign, but he still badly lost to Romney, who had nearly double his votes. Sam Brownback, who just for the record gives me the creeps, needed to take the second spot(he came in third). He's going to have a rough time continuing his campaign. He's a one issue man: abortion, and in this day and age, I just don't think the issue of abortion is important to main-stream america. We have a war, an immigration problem, a falling economy, a terrible infrastructure, a heath care crisis, and all Sam Brownback wants to talk about is how he is pro-life. If he wants to win the nomination or a general election, he's going to have to address some of these other issues.

Tom Tancredo surprised me a little. I did not expect him to come in at number four, more like 6 or 7. I guess it proves that the right-wing base loves crazy conservatives from Colorado. I was thinking he was going to drop out, but he may have enough steam for a few more weeks, at least until the next debate. Ron Paul, my man, came in at number 5, a little disappointing to me, but good none the less. For a man who has been polling at 0%, number 5 is okay...for him. I do actually hope he stays in the campaign to the end, just so republicans have a choice of becoming sane and choosing an anti-war candidate. Anything below number 5 is a sign you should drop out. Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and John Cox came in 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively. Tommy Thompson has already said that if he didn't finish at the top, he would drop out, so I guess its bye bye Tommy. Duncan Hunter has contributed nothing to the debates and hasn't made any impact what-so-ever on this campaign. Its time for him to go and I believe he will. And what can I say about John Cox? The man got 41 votes. When you can't even get 50 out of 14,000 votes, its a problem. I would say that he is going to drop out, but he's been holding strong even though no one has a clue who the hell he is, so maybe he's just going to stay in it to the end, hoping he'll get a spot in one of the debates once the other drop out.

A chance to break out: The Iowa Straw Poll

Well today in Ames, Iowa is the Ames Straw Poll. In the past, the Straw Poll has been able to give us a good indication of whom will win the Iowa Caucus. It also is the chance for one of the lower-tier candidates to break through the glass ceiling to become a front-runner. One can argue the validity of winning the straw poll. In all senses of the word, it is nothing but a money race. The candidate with the most money can essentially "buy" votes. This is one reason why Mitt Romney is expected to cleanly and decisively win the Straw Poll.

Now one of the reasons why someone could break out is due to the fact that three of the front-runners have decided not to compete. Those three would be Mayor Guiliani, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Fred Thompson, who has yet to declare his candidacy. One has to question their wisdom not to compete. Romney has been winning in Iowa Caucus polls with on average 10-15 percentage points ahead of Guiliani and McCain. Both may want to preserve the candidacy, for if they lost to Romney, they might have lost some national support. It would not do well for either Guiliani or McCain to be seen finishing in a distant second of third place. I still believe, however, that they should have competed. It has to feel like the two are shunning the Iowa voters. And who knows this could have been a chance for Guiliani to poll ahead of Romney. If your in it to win it, you should be in all the formalities that go along with running for president, and for the Republicans, the Ames Straw Poll is certainly one of those formalities.

With Romney expected to win first place, who will come in second, and how far behind first place will he be? Both Gov. Huckabee and Sen. Brownback are looking to capture second place. Brownback has been running ads in Iowa, criticizing Romney on his lack of leadership when it comes to abortion. Huckabee has been polling well in Iowa, most recently tied with John McCain. If either one of these men can score close to Romney's numbers, they could break out into the front-tier.

Ron Paul is my pick for the surprise candidate. He will either do extremely well, or extremely poorly, I just don't know which yet, although I hope he finishes strong. He has to be the favorite among anti-war republicans and has received massive online support. If that online support shows up at the Straw poll, expect Paul to do well, if they don't he will likely finish at the bottom of the pack.

As for Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo, both have gained support in Iowa. Expect them to finish somewhere in the middle. Duncan Hunter has not been doing well in Iowa, so expect him to finish second to last place. Now I'm not psychic, but I can and will tell you who will come in dead last. John Cox. And he'll finish last because most people have never heard of him. He hasn't even taken part in any of the debates.

With the Straw Poll today, it should be interesting to see who will break through, if anybody. I would not surprise me in the least if we see one or two of the "losers" drop out of the race after today. Some, in fact, have probably been planning to drop out, but will use the Straw Poll as an excuse. I plan on doing a follow-up blog after the results are announced.