Brownback To Endorse Giuliani?

As we all know, Sen. Sam Brownback dropped out of the race for president a couple of weeks ago. We also know that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner of the GOP Presidential candidates. What we do not know is whether or not Sam Brownback will throw his support behind his Mayor Giuliani.

Now the general consensus with anyone reading this question would be "of course not". Brownback is the picture-perfect conservative. His presidential campaign had one focus----what Brownback called his "moral" credentials. He wanted to "rebuild the family". Brownback is strongly pro-life, strongly anti-gay, and strongly against gun control. Giuliani, on the other hand, is pro-choice, pro-gay, and strongly for gun control(well, he used to be before he "refined" his positions). So the question is: why has Brownback been seen talking highly favorable of Rudy Giuliani? Was it not just a few debates ago when Brownback said the GOP would "never nominate a pro-abortion candidate"? Well now it seems that a Brownback endorsement of Giuliani is not too far away.

If Brownback does indeed endorse Giuliani, he will claim it will be because of Giuliani's tough stance on foreign issues. I can assure you Brownback will conveniently forget Rudy's liberal social views. My thought----Brownback is a sell-out. Now, to give him the benefit of the doubt, Brownback hasn't endorsed Rudy yet, but he has been clearly warming up to the idea of a Giuliani presidency. If anything, if Browback truly feels the way he does on social issues, he should be using everything in his power to keep Giuliani from becoming the nominee. But he won't. Brownback, like many politicians, wants to "get in good" with the candidate who is most likely to win. I hope, if Brownback continues to show support for Giuliani, or if an endorsement does take place, that the Christian Right raises hell with Brownback. There is nothing I hate more than people suddenly changing their opinions when it suits them.

The GOP Candidates' major flaws

Just like the Democrats, Republicans do not have one ideal candidate. They each bring something positive to their party, but here I will take a look at each candidate's major problem in winning the primaries and a general election.

1. Rudy Guiliani- Rudy has so many past issues that could come up in a general election. Once his past comes out(such as the fact that his kids have completely disowned him), he is likely to become the most un-likable candidate from either party. His social views could also be a major problem in early key states, such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

2. John McCain- John's stance on two major issues have hurt him. And its not a surprise that both of those issues are related to George Bush. Bush's immigration bill, that McCain supported, greatly hurt him among the conservative base. McCain supporting this war so strongly has hurt his chances of gaining moderate republican support and independent support.

3. Fred Thompson- This guy has waited too long to get into the race. A lot of people have already made their mind up and know who their voting for and Fred has yet to even enter the race. The longer he waits to get it, the more people will have made up their mind on who their voting for, and thats more people who won't be voting for Fred Thompson.

4. Mitt Romney- Mitt is the ultimate flip-flopper. Every major issue important to the republican party, Mitt has flip-flopped on. His newly found conservative values may get him the nomination, but there is nothing the American people hate more than flip-floppers. Romney would be a disaster for the GOP, almost a sure shot that they would lose a general election.

5. Mike Huckabee- This guy has probably the most appealing personality of anyone running, but Huckabee just isn't a forceful guy. In the dog-eat-dog world of politics, you have to be ready to take tough stands and go after your opponents. Mike is the nice guy, and while there is nothing wrong with being nice in politics, Mike has played it too nice. He is getting walked over by the others and is not breaking out of the pact like he should have already done.

6. Tom Tancredo- This guy is the crazy conservative. His past comments on bombing Mecca and Medina just about alienate him from getting the votes of any sane person. His tough stances on immigration make his chances of getting any hispanic support zero. This guy is the Dennis Kucinich of the Republican field, appealing to some, but just too far out there for most.

7. Duncan Hunter- Hunter just doesn't have anything to say. He's hardly heard from in the debates and has not said anything about how he would run the country. Its hard to earn votes when no one knows any of your ideas for moving this country forward.

8. Ron Paul- Paul is the ideal candidate for anti-war republicans and independents, but the problem is that the primary voting block in republican primaries is conservatives who are pro-war. Paul might do surprising well in a general election as the republican nominee, but his chances of getting there are slim to none.

9. Sam Brownback- Sam's "holier than thou" attitude is just a turn off for so many people. Sam has this arrogance about him when he talks, as if he's better than everyone else because of his religion. His other problem is that he's a one dimensional candidate, he only talks about abortion. In this day and age, I just can't help but to think that there are way more important issues to take care of than abortion.

10. John Cox- Ever heard of him? neither have I, thats his problem.

Well there is my round-up of the negatives of the GOP candidates. If you haven't already, check out my blog on the negatives of the democratic candidates.

The Iowa Straw Poll: who finished strong, and who's going home?

Well one day after the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, one thing is clear, Mitt Romney's win was neither surprising nor meaningful. With the top 3 front-runners, Guiliani, Thompson, and McCain, not participating, Romney was the only candidate with a significant amount of money in his pocket. And it is actually pretty sad when you have to spend $3 to 5 million just to come out on top when your biggest threat is Mike Huckabee. Guiliani and McCain were smart; they knew that if they didn't take take part in the poll, they would de-value a Mitt Romney win. Now people look at Mitt Romney winning and can say, "so what? Rudy, McCain, and Fred weren't even there, he was the default choice." While I don't agree with Guiliani or McCain skipping the Straw Poll, they knew that they couldn't afford to be beaten by Mitt Romney and without them there, Romney's win would mean a lot less.

Now onto the other candidates. Mike Huckabee did well, yet he was always the favorite to come in at number two. He had been polling increasingly well in Iowa, most recently tying with John McCain. His win was no doubt a shot in the arm that could help his campaign, but he still badly lost to Romney, who had nearly double his votes. Sam Brownback, who just for the record gives me the creeps, needed to take the second spot(he came in third). He's going to have a rough time continuing his campaign. He's a one issue man: abortion, and in this day and age, I just don't think the issue of abortion is important to main-stream america. We have a war, an immigration problem, a falling economy, a terrible infrastructure, a heath care crisis, and all Sam Brownback wants to talk about is how he is pro-life. If he wants to win the nomination or a general election, he's going to have to address some of these other issues.

Tom Tancredo surprised me a little. I did not expect him to come in at number four, more like 6 or 7. I guess it proves that the right-wing base loves crazy conservatives from Colorado. I was thinking he was going to drop out, but he may have enough steam for a few more weeks, at least until the next debate. Ron Paul, my man, came in at number 5, a little disappointing to me, but good none the less. For a man who has been polling at 0%, number 5 is okay...for him. I do actually hope he stays in the campaign to the end, just so republicans have a choice of becoming sane and choosing an anti-war candidate. Anything below number 5 is a sign you should drop out. Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and John Cox came in 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively. Tommy Thompson has already said that if he didn't finish at the top, he would drop out, so I guess its bye bye Tommy. Duncan Hunter has contributed nothing to the debates and hasn't made any impact what-so-ever on this campaign. Its time for him to go and I believe he will. And what can I say about John Cox? The man got 41 votes. When you can't even get 50 out of 14,000 votes, its a problem. I would say that he is going to drop out, but he's been holding strong even though no one has a clue who the hell he is, so maybe he's just going to stay in it to the end, hoping he'll get a spot in one of the debates once the other drop out.

A chance to break out: The Iowa Straw Poll

Well today in Ames, Iowa is the Ames Straw Poll. In the past, the Straw Poll has been able to give us a good indication of whom will win the Iowa Caucus. It also is the chance for one of the lower-tier candidates to break through the glass ceiling to become a front-runner. One can argue the validity of winning the straw poll. In all senses of the word, it is nothing but a money race. The candidate with the most money can essentially "buy" votes. This is one reason why Mitt Romney is expected to cleanly and decisively win the Straw Poll.

Now one of the reasons why someone could break out is due to the fact that three of the front-runners have decided not to compete. Those three would be Mayor Guiliani, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Fred Thompson, who has yet to declare his candidacy. One has to question their wisdom not to compete. Romney has been winning in Iowa Caucus polls with on average 10-15 percentage points ahead of Guiliani and McCain. Both may want to preserve the candidacy, for if they lost to Romney, they might have lost some national support. It would not do well for either Guiliani or McCain to be seen finishing in a distant second of third place. I still believe, however, that they should have competed. It has to feel like the two are shunning the Iowa voters. And who knows this could have been a chance for Guiliani to poll ahead of Romney. If your in it to win it, you should be in all the formalities that go along with running for president, and for the Republicans, the Ames Straw Poll is certainly one of those formalities.

With Romney expected to win first place, who will come in second, and how far behind first place will he be? Both Gov. Huckabee and Sen. Brownback are looking to capture second place. Brownback has been running ads in Iowa, criticizing Romney on his lack of leadership when it comes to abortion. Huckabee has been polling well in Iowa, most recently tied with John McCain. If either one of these men can score close to Romney's numbers, they could break out into the front-tier.

Ron Paul is my pick for the surprise candidate. He will either do extremely well, or extremely poorly, I just don't know which yet, although I hope he finishes strong. He has to be the favorite among anti-war republicans and has received massive online support. If that online support shows up at the Straw poll, expect Paul to do well, if they don't he will likely finish at the bottom of the pack.

As for Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo, both have gained support in Iowa. Expect them to finish somewhere in the middle. Duncan Hunter has not been doing well in Iowa, so expect him to finish second to last place. Now I'm not psychic, but I can and will tell you who will come in dead last. John Cox. And he'll finish last because most people have never heard of him. He hasn't even taken part in any of the debates.

With the Straw Poll today, it should be interesting to see who will break through, if anybody. I would not surprise me in the least if we see one or two of the "losers" drop out of the race after today. Some, in fact, have probably been planning to drop out, but will use the Straw Poll as an excuse. I plan on doing a follow-up blog after the results are announced.