Friday, October 19, 2007

Is Giuliani Becoming Too Conservative?

The answer is yes, he is. Now most analysts would say that Giuliani becoming more and more conservative is a good thing. The truth is they are right, but only partially. In his attempt to get the Republican nomination, Giuliani has "modified" several of his positions to appear more in line with the GOP base. He has become, by far, the most hawkish candidate, drawing the nickname of "Bush on steroids". He has refined his pro-choice by stating that he would appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court. Instead of being very pro-gun control, Rudy now says that he respects the 2nd Amendment. All of these policy shifts have put Giuliani more in line with the Republican base, but it could hinder one of his very important arguments for being the nominee------that he could put some traditionally "blue states" into play.

By becoming more conservative, Giuliani is clearly hurting his chances among moderate voters in states such as New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, and even California. The "old Giuliani" had a better chance to win these states than the "new, conservatively improved Giuliani". Its highly unlikely that he will draw support from Independents who are overwhelmingly against this war and for withdrawal. Pro-choice, pro-gun control urbanites are already showing dissatisfaction at Giuliani's new stances. Polls show many feel Giuliani is selling his soul, so to speak, to conservatives just to get the nomination.

Polls reflect this showing as well. While 6 months ago, Florida and Pennsylvania Independents were leaning towards Giuliani; now they lean significantly towards Clinton. Giuliani's new found conservative nature might get him the support of the Republican base, but it is already losing him the support of many moderates. By the time the 2008 election rolls around, Giuliani may be getting the onslaught from two key voting blocks-----strict social conservatives who say they would never trust Giuliani and moderate Independent voters. Take those two voting blocks away from Giuliani and you make it impossible for him to win the White House.

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