What's interesting when you look at potential general election match-up polls is that the several Republicans running for President are highly unlikely to even win their home state. I always have said, when looking to see how a candidate would govern as President, all you have to do is look at how he/she is favored by the people whom he/she served. Any candidate can craft a national image; thats why it is always important to look to the people who have the right to judge the leadership qualities of the candidates.
The perfect example is Rudy Giuliani. Nationally, he is, for the most part, well liked. In New York, however, it is a different story. In a head to head match-up, Sen. Hillary Clinton convincingly defeats Giuliani by 25 points: 58% to 33%. 64% of New Yorkers have a very favorable view of Clinton while only 46% feel the same about Rudy. Now while this may not be seen as a big deal because New York has a history of going Democrat, in a way, it is. Giuliani has based his campaign on the notion that he "can put states such as New York, New Jersey, and California into play". Well the polls show just about the same result in those states as they showed in New York---Clinton would easily win. What is even more interesting is that when you go into New York City itself, where Rudy was mayor, people have even a less favorable opinion of him. While nationally Rudy is seen as the 9/11 hero, in New York City, where the attack happened, people feel that Rudy has and is using 9/11 for his own gain. They also feel like he is exaggerating his heroism. So I don't know who you will believe: the Giuliani campaign or the actual citizens of New York City, but I choose to listen to the people who were actually there and witnessed Rudy in action.
Another prime example is Gov. Mitt Romney from Massachusetts. The latest poll shows Romney losing terribly to Sen. Hillary Clinton: 65%-31%. The Romney campaign has tried to spin this as "expected" because Massachusetts is "a very blue state". And while that is true, there is no way to downplay a candidate losing by over 30 points in his own state. Massachusetts wasn't too "blue" to elect Romney Governor. Why have people in Massachusetts suddenly turned on Romney?---because he hasn't stayed true to himself. While running for Governor, Romney had the complete opposite views he now has while running for the Republican nomination. If Romney would just have stayed true to himself, he would be better liked in Massachusetts. No body likes it when a candidate clearly changes all his positions just because it is politically convenient. The people of Massachusetts know that Romney has flip-flopped and it's about time the rest of America realizes that.
It is also interesting to look at the state of Arkansas. Hillary Clinton was First Lady there for 8 years and the people loved her then, and they apparently still do. Clinton leads all Republicans, including Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, by at least 25 points in all the polls. This is a good thing for Clinton and is a little surprising to me. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican. It has safely voted for George Bush in the last two elections. In 2008, however, if Clinton is the nominee, it appears Arkansas will once again be going Democrat. Clinton is favored by 66% in Arkansas. What is even more intriguing is looking at where Clinton draws her support. Among conservative Republican women, Clinton has an edge of 23 points over her nearest rivals. She also is the favorite of conservative Republican men, who say they would vote for Clinton over any Republican by about 13 points. We see this same type of Republican support for Clinton in New York, where Clinton won all but 4 of New York's 62 counties, including many of which are strongly Republican. This demonstrates that once Republicans get to know Hillary, they like her, or at least, they don't hate her. This is why I urge Republicans not to think of Clinton as an easy target because of her unpopularity with Republicans. Much of her unpopularity is due to the Republican's false stories about her. Once Republicans get to hear what Clinton herself has to say, they might not think she's that bad after all.
