THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Republicans are poised to win control over the House of Representatives. To do so, they will need to win a net of 39 seats. In the previous wave election of 1994, Republicans picked up 54. This years seems no different. My guess is that the GOP picks up between 49 and 60 seats, although a net gain of ten more or ten less is not implausible. There isn’t much of a race-by-race analysis to take place here as House races are a lot less about local issues than Senate and Governor races. A horrible economy compared with tepid approval for the President means Republicans will win 75% or so of competitive seats. The challenge, however, will be retaining these seats in 2012, when the economy should have improved and Obama’s reelection will draw out young and minority voters that propelled the now endangered Democrats to victory in 2008. It’s not impossible to conceive that the wave that pushes so many Republicans into the House this year will leave only a few left after 2012 when the wave recedes.
THE SENATE
Overview: The Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to control the Senate. The following are the most competitive races (all currently held by Democrats), in order least likely to flip to most likely, along with my predictions:
1. Deleware
This is the battle for Joe Biden’s Senate seat. Christine O’Donnel is the GOP nominee, while New Castle County Executive Chris Coons is the Democrat’s. Had Congressman Mike Castle defeated tea partier O’Donnel for the nomination (as virtually everyone had expected), Castle would win this seat hands down (and Republicans would have a very good chance to win the Senate). But O’Donnel represents the extreme wing of the extreme faction of the GOP. She has no chance of winning in a moderate state like Deleware. Coons (D) wins.
2. Connecticut:
With the retirement of Chris Dodd, Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is battling Republican Linda McMahon. McMahon, the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has run a horrible campaign and lags by about 8 points in the polls. Blumenthal (D) wins.
3. California:
Barbara Boxer, a long time incumbent and one of the most liberal U.S. senators, is facing a tough re-election against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Although this race will be much, much closer than the previous two, the strong democratic lean of California along with Fiorina’s abysmal campaigning should give Boxer the victory. Boxer (D) wins.
4. West Virginia:
Republicans saw a great pick-up opportunity when Senator Robert Byrd died earlier this year. Governor Joe Manchin won the Democratic nomination and faces Republican businessman John Raese. In a normal year, Manchin, the most popular governor in the country with a 70% approval rating, would win easily. But, Raese has been able to successfully portray Manchin as another vote for Obama if elected. Still, Manchin’s immense popularity should pull him over the finish line, but it will be close. Manchin (D) wins.
5. Washington.
Longtime incumbent Patty Murray is being challenged by businessman Dino Rossi. In a situation reversed from just about any other state this cycle, both candidates are well liked by the public. Polls have been all over the place, with some showing Murray leading by double digits and others with Rossi ahead a few points. While Washington is a fairly liberal state, the GOP wave is still a threat. I’ll go with Murray, but if the wave is large enough, Rossi can pull it out. Murray (D) wins.
6. Illinois.
This is for Obama’s Senate seat and pits Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulious against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk. Again, this should be an easy Democratic win in a normal year, but this is not a normal year. In addition, both candidates are severely flawed: Giannoulias has ties to mob bankers, while Kirk has lied several times about his military record. Polls show Kirk up by about 4 points. The major caveat, however, is that about 15% of the electorate remains undecided, even with only a couple days left. The race will be decided by those undecideds. My hunch is that they will break for the Democrat, and Giannoulious should eek out a win, but barely. It would be no surprise, however, if Kirk wins. Giannoulious (D) wins.
7. Colorado.
Its Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet vs. Republican district attorney Ken Buck. Had anyone but Buck gotten the nomination, they would be ahead by double digits, but Buck is a seriously flawed candidate, making many extreme statements that have come back to haunt him. Polls have shown both candidates literally tied for the past month. Still, Colorado is a fairly conservative state, and the GOP wave should put Buck over the top. Buck (R) wins.
8. Pennsylvania.
It’s a battle of Congressmen as Joe Sestak (D) battles Pat Toomey (R). Toomey held about an 8 point lead since the start of the campaign, but recently Sestak has improved his position. This race will come down to turnout; if Sestak can get a high enough turnout in Philly and Pittsburg, he can possibly still win, but it looks unlikely at this point. Toomey (R) wins.
9. Wisconsin.
Russ Feingold (D) seems likely to lose his seat to businessman Ron Johnson. Although Feingold remains popular, this is a case of the GOP wave just being too heigh to overcome in a swing state like Wisconsin. Johnson (R) wins.
The Ultimate Showdown --- Nevada.
I put Nevada separate from the list because it really does deserve its unique spot. It’s as much of a coin flip as you can get. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is incredibly unpopular as Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. He was considered dead-on-arrival for much of the past two years. Then, in June, in a shocking upset, tea party favorite Sharron Angle defeated establishment Republican Sue Lowden for the Republican nomination. Suddenly, Reid went from being down double digits to being tied. In recent weeks, however, Angle has moved into a slight lead. If Reid can get his base out, and he does have the most impressive get-out-the-vote organization in the nation, he can pull it out. Also, there is an option on the Nevada ballot for “none-of-the above,” which could get as much as five or six percent of the vote, considering both Reid and Angle have unfavorable ratings in the 50s. Out of all the predictions, I am most unsure about this one, but after overlooking the early voting numbers, it looks like the Reid machine is hard at work, so I’ll say...Reid (D) wins.
Conclusion:
In the end, its not enough for the GOP. They will make significant gains in the Senate, winning the seats I predicted here as well as picking up Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota, which simply aren’t competitive. The Democrats will hold on in the Senate, the only question is, will Reid still be the majority leader? I predict he will win, but if doesn’t, look for Chuch Schumer of New York to be the new Majority Leader.
