Election Day 2010 Predictions

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:

Republicans are poised to win control over the House of Representatives. To do so, they will need to win a net of 39 seats. In the previous wave election of 1994, Republicans picked up 54. This years seems no different. My guess is that the GOP picks up between 49 and 60 seats, although a net gain of ten more or ten less is not implausible. There isn’t much of a race-by-race analysis to take place here as House races are a lot less about local issues than Senate and Governor races. A horrible economy compared with tepid approval for the President means Republicans will win 75% or so of competitive seats. The challenge, however, will be retaining these seats in 2012, when the economy should have improved and Obama’s reelection will draw out young and minority voters that propelled the now endangered Democrats to victory in 2008. It’s not impossible to conceive that the wave that pushes so many Republicans into the House this year will leave only a few left after 2012 when the wave recedes.

THE SENATE

Overview: The Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to control the Senate. The following are the most competitive races (all currently held by Democrats), in order least likely to flip to most likely, along with my predictions:

1. Deleware

This is the battle for Joe Biden’s Senate seat. Christine O’Donnel is the GOP nominee, while New Castle County Executive Chris Coons is the Democrat’s. Had Congressman Mike Castle defeated tea partier O’Donnel for the nomination (as virtually everyone had expected), Castle would win this seat hands down (and Republicans would have a very good chance to win the Senate). But O’Donnel represents the extreme wing of the extreme faction of the GOP. She has no chance of winning in a moderate state like Deleware. Coons (D) wins.

2. Connecticut:

With the retirement of Chris Dodd, Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is battling Republican Linda McMahon. McMahon, the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has run a horrible campaign and lags by about 8 points in the polls. Blumenthal (D) wins.

3. California:

Barbara Boxer, a long time incumbent and one of the most liberal U.S. senators, is facing a tough re-election against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Although this race will be much, much closer than the previous two, the strong democratic lean of California along with Fiorina’s abysmal campaigning should give Boxer the victory. Boxer (D) wins.

4. West Virginia:

Republicans saw a great pick-up opportunity when Senator Robert Byrd died earlier this year. Governor Joe Manchin won the Democratic nomination and faces Republican businessman John Raese. In a normal year, Manchin, the most popular governor in the country with a 70% approval rating, would win easily. But, Raese has been able to successfully portray Manchin as another vote for Obama if elected. Still, Manchin’s immense popularity should pull him over the finish line, but it will be close. Manchin (D) wins.

5. Washington.

Longtime incumbent Patty Murray is being challenged by businessman Dino Rossi. In a situation reversed from just about any other state this cycle, both candidates are well liked by the public. Polls have been all over the place, with some showing Murray leading by double digits and others with Rossi ahead a few points. While Washington is a fairly liberal state, the GOP wave is still a threat. I’ll go with Murray, but if the wave is large enough, Rossi can pull it out. Murray (D) wins.

6. Illinois.

This is for Obama’s Senate seat and pits Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulious against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk. Again, this should be an easy Democratic win in a normal year, but this is not a normal year. In addition, both candidates are severely flawed: Giannoulias has ties to mob bankers, while Kirk has lied several times about his military record. Polls show Kirk up by about 4 points. The major caveat, however, is that about 15% of the electorate remains undecided, even with only a couple days left. The race will be decided by those undecideds. My hunch is that they will break for the Democrat, and Giannoulious should eek out a win, but barely. It would be no surprise, however, if Kirk wins. Giannoulious (D) wins.

7. Colorado.

Its Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet vs. Republican district attorney Ken Buck. Had anyone but Buck gotten the nomination, they would be ahead by double digits, but Buck is a seriously flawed candidate, making many extreme statements that have come back to haunt him. Polls have shown both candidates literally tied for the past month. Still, Colorado is a fairly conservative state, and the GOP wave should put Buck over the top. Buck (R) wins.

8. Pennsylvania.

It’s a battle of Congressmen as Joe Sestak (D) battles Pat Toomey (R). Toomey held about an 8 point lead since the start of the campaign, but recently Sestak has improved his position. This race will come down to turnout; if Sestak can get a high enough turnout in Philly and Pittsburg, he can possibly still win, but it looks unlikely at this point. Toomey (R) wins.

9. Wisconsin.

Russ Feingold (D) seems likely to lose his seat to businessman Ron Johnson. Although Feingold remains popular, this is a case of the GOP wave just being too heigh to overcome in a swing state like Wisconsin. Johnson (R) wins.

The Ultimate Showdown --- Nevada.

I put Nevada separate from the list because it really does deserve its unique spot. It’s as much of a coin flip as you can get. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is incredibly unpopular as Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. He was considered dead-on-arrival for much of the past two years. Then, in June, in a shocking upset, tea party favorite Sharron Angle defeated establishment Republican Sue Lowden for the Republican nomination. Suddenly, Reid went from being down double digits to being tied. In recent weeks, however, Angle has moved into a slight lead. If Reid can get his base out, and he does have the most impressive get-out-the-vote organization in the nation, he can pull it out. Also, there is an option on the Nevada ballot for “none-of-the above,” which could get as much as five or six percent of the vote, considering both Reid and Angle have unfavorable ratings in the 50s. Out of all the predictions, I am most unsure about this one, but after overlooking the early voting numbers, it looks like the Reid machine is hard at work, so I’ll say...Reid (D) wins.

Conclusion:

In the end, its not enough for the GOP. They will make significant gains in the Senate, winning the seats I predicted here as well as picking up Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota, which simply aren’t competitive. The Democrats will hold on in the Senate, the only question is, will Reid still be the majority leader? I predict he will win, but if doesn’t, look for Chuch Schumer of New York to be the new Majority Leader.

Another First For Politidose

I have written several past commentaries, the latest dated April 8, 2008 (yes, way back then) titled The Iraq-Iran Alliance and pointed out no matter how and when the Iraq war ends, Iraq and Iran will be close allies and the fruits of the billions of dollars the U.S. spent to rebuild Iraq will be enjoyed by Iraq and Iran. Now comes a story out of the Associated Press dated 10/22/2010 that reports the following.

American influence has so dwindled in Iraq over the last several months that Iraqi lawmakers and political leaders say they no longer follow Washington's advice for forming a government. Instead, Iraqis are turning to neighboring nations, and especially Iran, for guidance, casting doubt on the future of the American role in this strategic country after a grinding war that killed more than 4,400 U.S. soldiers.

The March parliamentary elections in Iraq failed to produce a winner and Iraq has failed to heed the U.S. advise to form a government. Iraqi politicians say they will pick new leaders on their own timetable. Keep in mind the Sunni backed political coalition won the most votes in the March election and Al-Sadr, whose hardline Shiite followers are close to Iran has been talking to Iraq's al-MAliki to form a new government.

The Bush administration outsmarted itself when it started a war and occupation in Iraq over WMD that did not exits and tried to remake Iraq in the warped image Bush created. The American loss of lives, the wounded, the financial cost to the U.S. and its people are a tragedy that will occupy our thoughts for a very long time. The U.S. and its people deserve better.

President Obama's First Fiscal Year Budget

Once again the republican cries about federal spending under the Obama administration confirm their present and past lies to the American people about who the big spenders really are. Any one who follows this writers site knows of the republican lies. See Note 1 below for past comments.

President Obama's first fiscal year budget that ended Sept. 30, 2010 came in with a federal deficit of $1.29 trillion, smaller than expected and less than President Bush's record federal deficit of his last fiscal year budget ending Sept. 30, 2009 that came in at a record $1.42 trillion. The republican party's record of being the greatest deficit spender in history is still intact.

Federal spending in Obama's first fiscal budget year fell 1.6% from Bush's last fiscal year budget. Federal spending under the Obama administration was $3.46 trillion. Under the Bush administration it was $3.51 trillion. In other words federal spending continues to be a republican party staple that identifies their party for what it really stands for. The decrease in Obama's first fiscal year budget is even more impressive when one understands the terrible economic conditions Bush left behind.

When you compare Bush's first fiscal year budget that ended Sept. 30, 2002 to President Clinton's last federal budget year that ended Sept. 30, 2001, federal spending was up 8%. Federal spending under Bush that fiscal year was $2.01 trillion to Clinton's $1.86 trillion. And Bush inherited the greatest economy and job creation, lowest unemployment rate in over 30 years, record surpluses and a reduction of the national debt.

One of the main reasons this economic slow down is taking time to recover is due to the fact that during Bush's eight years in office a massive amount of wealth was transferred from the middle class to the wealthy. Also eight straight years of record federal deficits and a increase of over $6 trillion in the national debt. That combination was a betrayal of the United States and its people.

Note 1: The U.S. Economy: Which Party Performs Best, Parts I, II,III dated 1/27/08, 2/17/08, 2/25/08 and Recap and Conclusion dated 3/2/08

The Fiscal Legacy of President George W. Bush dated 10/30/09

Federal Spending: Facts vs. Myth dated 10/31/09

National Debt: Betrayal and Devastation dated 12/6/09

Governor Bobby Jindal: Louisiana's Failed Leader

On Friday October 22 Jindal announced another round of budget cuts totaling $157 million and once again health care and higher education bears the burden of those cuts. (Times Picayune article of 10/23.) The cuts will force the layoff of at least 400 state workers. The article stated the reductions were necessary to plug a $107 million deficit left over from the 2009-2010 fiscal year budget that ended June 30, 2010.

That 2009-2010 budget was announced as being in balance at the time by Jindal like his other budgets but half way through those budget years they were all out of balance by millions of dollars and Jindal knew they would be. Jindal is no fiscal conservative and is a mirror image of the national republican party who has not balanced one federal budget since Eisenhower in 1960. In fact Jindal served in Congress during the Bush administration when the republicans controlled the Congress and was silent the whole time the Bush administration was running up record federal deficits and debt.

The unemployment rate in Louisiana at the end of January 2008 was 3.8%. (Jindal took office that same month.) The unemployment rate at the end of August 2010 was 7.6% with the number of people unemployed at 158,914, the highest since Katrina in 2005, double the unemployment since Governor Blanco left office in January of 2008. It seems Mr. Jindal is waiting for the National economy to jump start Louisiana's economy instead of doing his job for the state and its people.

Governor Jindal said people should not whine and complain about his budget cuts and that leaders should provide vision and leadership. Then the governor flew off to a political fundraiser in Pennsylvania after the announcements. Another one of the many out of state political trips in the last several weeks. Vision and leadership has escaped Jindal and so has courage.

Conservative republicans have on thing in common, an ideology that they govern by that is anti middle class. President Clinton left office with a record economy, record job creation, record low unemployment, balanced budgets, surpluses and a reduction of the National debt. George Bush blew all of that in his first year in office and continued until his record recession, record job losses, record federal deficits and debt and escalating unemployment rate. The transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy was complete when he left office.

Governor Blanco left Jindal a billion dollar surpluss, a 3.8% unemployment rate and a fiscal house that was in order. Like Bush, Jindal blew all of that with his failed ideology and policies, lack of leadership, lack of courage and a desire to roll back all the progress Louisiana made since Katrina.

Jindal and his administration continue to give tax breaks and other incentives to corporate America under the guise of job creation but unemployment as the numbers show continue to go up in Louisiana. At the end of August 2010 there were 1,940,093 people employed in Louisiana. When Jindal took office in January 2008, there were 1,972,655 employed, a decrease of 32,552. So much for job creation by this administration.

Jindal's ambition is national which is confirmed by the number of out of state fund raising trips he takes part in. Like the national republican party, Jindal is out to bankrupt government, only this time it is Louisiana and its people. Wake up Louisiana, conservative republicans have no record of fiscal responsibility, a growing economy or steady job creation. There record has always been the transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy.

Note: Employment and unemployment numbers taken from Historical changes, Louisiana's unemployment rate.

The Deep Water Drilling Moratorium Is Lifted

President Obama's administration lifted the Moratorium on offshore drilling ahead of schedule but as usual, the oil industry, some Louisiana elected officials in and out side of congress and some in the business community who railed against the moratorium are still not satisfied. U.S.
Senator Mary Landrieu still refuses to relinquish her hold on the nomination of Jacob Lew to be director of the federal office of Management and Budget. A position so extreme that it completely changes what the Senator stands for.

Those people now say although the moratorium has been lifted there is a defacto moratorium because the new rules on offshore drilling permitting by the government are to restrictive for the rigs to be put in service timely. The oil industry has proved they will not be satisfied with any thing that has to do with regulation. They want to be free to do as they please. Those elected officials who opposed the moratorium are just as bad because they let the oil industry lobby money influence their decisions. Business people in general usually back the position of industry even when they are wrong.

The Obama administration has to carry through in making sure regulations are in place that truly regulate the oil industry and its cowboy attitude and operations, anything less is unacceptable. Keep in mind the oil industry has been operating offshore in shallow and deep waters for over 50 years and still do not have any system available to timely plug a offshore leak such as the BP one, nor do they have the system or people available to timely remove any spilled oil from the waters of the Gulf before that water reaches shore.

On the contrary several major oil companies recently announced they will have a system available in 18 months. In the mean time there could be more blow outs and leaking of oil. And this is the same industry who has assured the people for over 50 years they could handle any problems timely. The industry has not even earned the trust of its own people. That really says it all.

The Numbers Do Not Add Up For New Orleans Sales Tax Collections

Does any one remember the bill of goods that was sold to the people of New Orleans concerning the building of the Superdome in order to obtain a professional sports franchise to move to the city? It went some thing like this and came from the mouths of our political, civic and business leaders and yes the Chamber of Commerce also.

The building of the Superdome and obtaining a professional franchise would bring a tremendous amount of increase to the City's sales tax revenue that would allow the city to better serve its citizens and improve city services and etc. Well lets look at the latest sales tax revenue as published in the Times Picayune dated 10/10/10 covering the first quarter of 2005, 06, 07, 08 and 09, a period of five years. Sales tax collections for Orleans, Jefferson and St. Tammany parish are as follows.

Jefferson $507.2 million
St. Tammany 239.4 million
Orleans 167.3 million

The Dome stadium is located in New Orleans and the Saints play in New Orleans along with the Hornets in the first quarter. The Sugar Bowl is played in the first quarter and of course Mardi Gras falls in the first quarter. We have also had a final four in the first quarter. Yet Jefferson and St. Tammany parish beat our tails off in collecting sales tax revenue by a wide margin.

The Bush recession officially started in December 2007. The Sales tax collections above cited took place 3 years before the recession and also during the recession so don't try to blame it on the recession. Don't try to blame it on Katrina either.

New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu will be a great progressive Mayor for the City of New Orleans and will have to address this sales tax problem. And those who support the notion that the Superdome, Saints, the Sugar Bowl and etc. will greatly add to the city's sales tax collection are wrong. The Saints play 10 days a year in the Superdome and possibly 12 days if they have home field advantage in the playoff. It is obvious our priorities are misplaced as a full time business open for business 365 days a year would produce more sales tax than the Saints or any other professional franchise. Yet Mr. Benson and the owner of the Hornets are given millions of dollars of Corporate Welfare every year when they should be self supporting.

Jefferson Parish and St Tammany Parish should never be able to beat the City of New Orleans like a drum in sales tax collections for any quarter. That says it all.

Social Security: No COLA Increases For 2011?

It has been reported by the Associated Press Social Security recipients will not receive any adjustments for the coming year. If so it will be the second year in a row. The culprit is inflation that triggers the cost of living adjustment, or COLA as it is called. Like last year, the trustees who oversee Social Security project there will be no COLA for 2011 because of the inflation trigger.


The republican party and conservatives of all stripes are trying to blame the President for the COLA adjustments, however the law covering COLA were adopted by Congress under the Republican administration of Nixon-Ford in 1975 so this news is not new. It was good law because inflation was a problem at the time. The problem now is that the Bush recession and record job losses have been so severe there has been no inflation growth the past two years. Republicans talk a good game but it ends there.

Social Security recipients are better off keeping their monthly Social Security benefits without the benefit of COLA rather than have the Republican party privatize Social Security with Wall Street. That is what was behind the 20 years of record deficit spending and debt created by the administrations of Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43. Their record deficit spending and debt was to deprive the federal government of revenue so Social Security and Medicare would have to fold.

The best thing Social Security recipients can do if they want to continue receiving their benefits is to vote Democratic. It was President Obama's stimulus plan that gave the people on Social Security $250.00 last year. A stimulus plan opposed by the republicans inside and out side of Congress. That says it all.

Iraq: The Kind Of War That Never Should Be Repeated

After seven years and five months the U.S. ended its combat role in Iraq. 50,000 support troops will stay until the end of 2011. The U.S. lost over 4400 good Americans in that war that were killed and over 30,000 wounded, many who will never walk again on their own. Many of our troops served two and three deployments in that war.

The American people including our servicemen were told by President Bush that Iraq was a threat to our national security because they possessed WMD and that Iraq reconstituted its nuclear program, but those weapons and program never existed at any time during the Bush administration. The Bush administration even tried to plant the seed in the American people's mind that Saddam played a part in the tragic attacks on 9-11. That too never existed.

Such a war must never be repeated again by an American President nor should any future President think he can reshape a country by launching such a war. President Obama should do all in his power to bring the rest of our support troops home before the end of 2011, the sooner the better. Iraq still has no government six months after their election and our support troops still there are bound to get caught up in Iraq's various squabbles. After seven years and five months what else can we do to help Iraq? Very little actually.

The shame in the war in Iraq is that our leaders took advantage of our men and women in uniform who not only go where they are told to go, they serve with honor, do their jobs and never complain. They ended up paying the ultimate price with their lives in this unnecessary war over WMD that did not exist. Just as shameful was the news media and many retired generals in the run up to the war who were telling the American people they knew for sure Iraq had WMD. They themselves played into the hand of President Bush and also took advantage of our men and women in uniform and their devotion to duty.

Never, ever again should America let history repeat itself in regard to this war.