Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Evaluating LSU's First Football Season Under Head Coach Brian Kelly.

 Objectivity is the honest way understanding a team's progress or regression and it is not just a one year thing.  Some LSU sports writers reported their thoughts on evaluating the team during the year but that more or less was to file a story for the newspapers.  Now that the regular season is over, we know the facts to make an objective evaluation.

We do know that this year's team made progress from the last two years when LSU played 500 ball.  This year's team had an overall winning record of 9-3 and a 6-2 record in SEC play and won the West division.  Last year's team finished with a 3-5 record and was last tied with Auburn in the West.  LSU will now play Georgia on Saturday for the SEC championship.  Those are accomplishments and improvements that can be checked with facts and can be seen on the field.  

How do you balance that improvement against the following?  LSU beat three teams with an overall winning record, Alabama, Ole Miss and Miss. State, (4 if you count Southern).  They beat only one team in the SEC with a winning record, Alabama;  They beat 5 teams in the SEC with a break even or losing record, Miss. State 4-4, Ole Miss. 4-4, Auburn 2-6, Florida 3-5, and Ark. 3-5.  They lost to Tennessee 6-2 and Texas A&M 2-6.  Out of the 7 teams in the SEC West, LSU and Alabama were the only two teams with a winning record within the SEC.  Beside Southern, LSU also played two other teams not up to par with the SEC, New Mexico and UAB. 

How should LSU's schedule be rated?  There has always been talk about certain teams playing a weak schedule.  Would LSU's schedule be rated strong, average or on the weak side?  They beat only one team that had an overall winning record and a winning record in the SEC, Alabama by one point.  Having the many teams in the SEC West with break even and losing records, can that division be called a strong division this past football season?  

Out of the 14 teams in the SEC's two divisions, only 4 teams had a winning record in SEC play.  Georgia and Tennessee in the East and LSU and Alabama in the West.  Tennessee played three of those teams and defeated two, Alabama and LSU.  Georgia played one, Tennessee and defeated them.  LSU played Tennessee and Alabama beating Alabama and losing to Tennessee.  Alabama played two of those teams, LSU and Tennessee and lost both games.  Obviously, Tennessee was dealt the strongest hand but still defeated two of the three they played.  Ten of the 14 teams had a break even or losing record in SEC play.  Do the numbers represent a strong SEC conference in 2022?  The numbers indicate a good debate could take place on the subject.

This writer is of the opinion that LSU's schedule would be rated no higher than average and that the objective evaluation indicates that the team has made much progress from the past two years and still has a way to go before they become a consistent winning team.  This years progress represents only one year and those talking about a College Football Playoff position got ahead of themselves.  One season is not a track record, it is an indication of what might come to be.

The unknown part of evaluating LSU's progress is, what role if any did the weak SEC teams play in LSU's success.  Everyone has their own answer, but it is an area that is unclear.  What we do know is that LSU is an improved team over the past two seasons and that fans now see some hope of good things to come.

This commentary written by Joe Lorio 

P.S. Stay tuned to the coming commentary concerning the CFP ranking of the top teams which this writer thinks needs to be changed.