For the past several months the negative noise machine has tried their best spreading misinformation about an economic recession. The predictions have run something like this: The recession is already here, or it will take place in the last quarter of 2022, or the middle or end of 2023. The time frame keeps changing. then after two quarters of negative GDP growth that is proof the country is already in recession and so on and so on it goes J.P. Morgan, a large financial institution changed its tune about the time frame so many times one wonders "what's the point."
Well the negative noise machine is ignorant as to the definition of an economic recession and when it actually and or officially takes place. The fact is The National Bureau of Economic Research, known as NBER established in 1920 is the arbiter of making the call on when a recession takes place. NBER is a private nonpartisan organization network of over 1700 plus economist. The division of NBER that makes the call after reviewing economic data is their "Business Cycle Dating Committee." The committee takes into consideration a multitude of economic data and not just two straight quarters of negative growth like the negative noise machine would like the public to think. The media who report and publish the negative noise are the enablers of passing on the misinformation from its sources. My hometown newspaper, The Times Picayune in an editorial column of 8/4 titled, Semantics Aside, Economy Struggling seems to think that since almost everybody uses the two negative quarters to judge recession it must be true.
The ignorance of those who pass on the negative comments surely have the means of knowing about NBER and that they are the officials in charge of making the recession call. And keep in mind that NBER announced that the last U.S. recession began in February 2020. That was two months before COVID hit the pandemic stage and two months before the labor department announced that the economy lost over 20 million jobs in April 2020. Does any one remember the negative noise machine or the media mention that the U.S. economy went into recession in February of 2020, two months before the COVID pandemic? In fact, Trump at that same time was treating COVID as just a word.
The only answer as to why the negative noise machine and their enablers would want to promote a thing like recession and actually would want to see one would be to damage the President and his party going into the mid-term elections. The negative noise is so bad Fox News tried to put a negative spin on the economy creating 528,000 jobs in July while those same negative voices were predicting 250,000 jobs.
The official word on recession if it comes, will have to be decided by the National Bureau of Economic Research and that really says it all.
This commentary written by Joe Lorio
