Saturday, October 27, 2018

Will The Outcome Of The November 6 Congressional Election Have Its Roots In The 2016 Election?

To this very day, the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election in which we also elected members of congress, a proper evaluation has never been made because the news media and the political pundits were all about Trump.  And now with the November 6 election only a week away the pundits are all over the map with their predictions.  This writer believes the 2016 election is a clue to what will take place on November 6.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote 48% to 46% over Donald Trump and her margin of almost 2 million more votes than Trump set a record.  The other Presidential candidates received 6% of the vote so 54% of those voting preferred some one other than Donald Trump and most of those favored Clinton.  And in that same election, the news media and the pundits seem to have forgotten that the democratic party gained 6 seats in the U.S. House and 2 seats in the U.S. Senate.  Those 8 seats that were picked up are not a large number but indicate the democratic party in the popular vote did very well.  And the November 6 election will be decided by the popular vote.

According to the latest polls, Trump and his party have not gained any popular advantage since the 2016 election and Trump's approval ratings have been between the 30 and 40% range.  And there are no indication that the republican controlled congress has convinced democratic voters they are better at running the country.  And to top it off the approval rating of the republicans in congress are in the 20% range.  Losing the Presidency in the 2016 election because of the electoral process, the news media and the political pundits never understood how the voters preferred the democrats to lead.

This writer feels that nothing has changed the voters minds since the 2016 election and that enough republicans and independents have changed their mind to make a difference and vote democratic on November 6.  What happened with the popular vote in the 2016 election will end up being a plus for the democratic party.


This commentary written by Joe Lorio