As we inch closer and closer to the 2008 Presidential election, most states are safe bets for Republicans or Democrats. For example the midwest votes almost entirely republican, while big states like New York and California are strongly democratic. States like these do not have a huge impact on the race, as they are considered "safe". Yet, there are key "swing" states that do not have an allegiance to either political party. These are the states that are key for any presidential candidate to win, because without winning them, you can't win the election. Here's a look at the most recent polls out of these "swing" states, pitting the Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton against Republican front-runner, Rudy Guiliani:
-Arkansas: Clinton leads Guiliani 55-37
-Colorado: Guiliani leads Clinton 50-40
-Florida: Clinton leads Guiliani: 49-44
-Iowa: Clinton leads Guiliani: 47-41
-Michigan: Clinton leads Guiliani: 49-40
-Minnesota: Clinton leads Guiliani: 50-41
-Missouri: Clinton leads Guiliani: 46-43
-Nevada: Guiliani leads Clinton: 46-38
-New Hampshire: Clinton leads Guiliani: 44-40
-New Mexico: Clinton leads Guiliani: 50-44
-Ohio: tied at 44%
-Oregon: Clinton leads Guiliani: 42-41
-Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Guiliani: 45-44
-West Virginia: Clinton leads Guiliani: 42-36
-Wisconsin: Clinton leads Guiliani: 47-46
As seen, Hillary Clinton is leading in just about all swing states. If the election was held today, the electoral vote would go: 313(Clinton) to 225(Guiliani) if Ohio went for Guiliani OR 333(Clinton) to 205(Guiliani) if Ohio went for Clinton. Regardless of Ohio, if current polling is accurate on election day, Clinton will have a relatively easy victory as only 270 electoral votes are needed. Looking at these poll numbers, Clinton's campaign should be very happy, because just 2 months ago, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio all went by at least 5% in polls to Guiliani. Now Clinton either leads or is tied in those key states. Also interesting to note is Clinton leading in more conservative states such as Missouri and West Virginia. If these numbers hold up, expect to see a huge democrat victory in '08, not just for the presidency, but also in the House and Senate.
1 comment :
If it were only that simple. I seriously doubt Rudy Giuliani winning the Republican nomination now that Fred Thompson has entered the race. Rudy has too many negatives and the Republicans know it. Fred Thompson will be a formidable opponent, what with his low negativity rating and his movie and television career making his face very recognizable.
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