Do Endorsements Matter?

With all the talk of Al Gore possible endorsing a candidate for president, I asked myself, "Do endorsements matter in today's world?". Here are my thoughts:

Would a Gore endorsement help any candidate? My guess is not significantly. Remember, Gore endorsed Howard Dean in '04, and Dean didn't win a single primary except for Vermont. While a Gore endorsement might give a slight boost to either the Obama or Edwards' campaign, there won't be a long term impact. Voters are looking to the candidates themselves these days to determine who to vote for. They are not looking to another politician to, in a sense, tell them who to vote for.

What I just talked about was a "national" endorsement. There are "local" endorsements that do matter and are significantly more important to a candidate than a national endorsement. Local endorsements matter because the national candidate gets local resources. A perfect example of this is former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's endorsement of Hillary Clinton. I give a lot of credit to Vilsack's endorsement of Hillary for her rise in polls in Iowa. Just six months ago she was about 10% behind Edwards. Now she is polling 3-10% ahead of Edwards, depending on what poll you look at. Endorsements from mayors and councilmen give even a greater advantage to candidates. All their local connections and resources are essentially given to the presidential candidate to use at their disposal, and that can be a huge advantage in early primary states and in swing districts in the general election.

So, do endorsements matter? Yes and no. National endorsements don't really have a long term effect. Local endorsements, on the other hand, can make a difference. Thats why it is always more important to look at the local organization of these campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire, than their national organization. The perfect example of this is the situation between Rudy and Romney. Rudy might have many national endorsements and might be leading in national polls, but Romney has much local support in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. And, if Romney can use that localized support properly, he can, despite Rudy's large national lead, win the GOP nomination. My point: national endorsements are often nothing more than symbolism; the local endorsements are the ones that win elections.