Romney on the Rise

Many have already ceded the Republican nomination to Rudy Giuliani and are planning for Clinton v. Giuliani in '08. However, if the latest caucus and primary polls are any indication, Rudy may well not be the nominee. That honor might go to former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney.

The two most important states in determining a nominee have historically been Iowa and New Hampshire, and there's really no indication that it would be any different this year. And, as far as polling is concerned, Romney is well ahead in those two key states. The latest poll for Iowa shows Romney at 27%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 19%. Rudy comes in third with 16%. New Hampshire polling has Romney at 30%, followed by Rudy at 23%. If this trend continues and Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he will replace Rudy as the frontrunner. As we saw with John Kerry in '04, the media buzz could be enough to propel Romney into South Carolina, Florida, and beyond.

The latest polling from South Carolina, however, shows that Romney may not need the media to pick up a win here. Conservatives from all over South Carolina have been endorsing Romney and Romney is on a fast rise there. The latest polling has Romney leading the pack with 29% followed by Rudy at 23%. Just one month ago, Rudy had 26% in South Carolina and Romney had a very weak 9%. But what a difference a month can make. It appears that Christian conservatives are flocking to Romney and his name recognition is growing and he is becoming more and more popular in South Carolina.

If Romney was to win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, I see no way in which he could lose the nomination. Now, say Romney just wins just two of the three and Rudy wins the other one----then I say Rudy could still get the nomination. But with all the media buzz that would surround the Romney campaign with three huge wins, Rudy would essentially become forgotten overnight.

This demonstrates how interesting the GOP race is because of its fluidity. Rudy might be the national frontrunner but Romney has the potential to steal the spotlight in a matter of a couple of weeks. Many have already written off Romney, but I am convinced, now more than ever by his growing South Carolina support, that Romney could win the nomination.