The Tide Is Turning: Huckabee Surges

Once only considered a contender in Iowa, Mike Huckabee is now in second place nationally and, according to one poll, is beating Rudy as the choice among all Republicans.  

So what does this mean for the Republican field?  Well, for one, it means that Rudy is no longer the sole "frontrunner".  Just a month ago, Rudy held a commanding 15 point lead over his nearest opponent.  But now, that lead has shrunk to 3-5 points, and in one case, as I mentioned above, he is no longer ahead.   This change in momentum is clearly reinforced by the media.  Rudy used to be the only GOP candidate to get any serious "buzz" in the media, but not anymore.  For the last two weeks, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have sucked up most of that media attention.  And, to make matters even worse for the falling Giuliani, the little attention paid to him has been negative to say the least.

  

Although I am sure Huckabee is gleeful for his sudden surge, he might not want to be so quick to celebrate.  For the previous 11 months of the campaign, Huckabee has been able to dodge the tough questions by simply not being considered a  serious contender.  But, with his newfound frontrunner status, comes newfound tough questions.  

If the past week is any indication, Huckabee might not be ready for the tough questions.  When asked what he made of the latest NIE, Huckabee responded that he didn't know what the reporter was talking about.  The reporter then had to go on to explain what the NIE was and it was then that Huckabee admitted to not knowing about it or what it contained.  This interview was a full day and a half after the report had been released; Huckabee had ample time to read and analyze it.  

Huckabee also came under a firestorm of criticism from the Huffington Post, who reported on a story that Huckabee, as governor of Arkansas, released a serial rapist who went on to kill a women.  Huckabee handled the situation rather poorly.  Instead of stating his reasons, if there are any sane ones, for this man's release, Huckabee more or less blamed the media for "getting it all wrong".  Blaming the media for everything is no way to handle a campaign; that line is old and people simply don't buy it anymore.  Huckabee would have done himself much better to just have said that he made a mistake and that he deeply regrets what happened.  Everyone makes a mistake; the public can accept that.  What the public can't and won't accept is baselessly blaming the media for, in essence, doing their job.

Possibly the biggest problem for Huckabee is his lack of money.  To my knowledge, Huckabee has around $2 million on hand and has recently spent much of that money on air time in the early primary states.  While $2 million may seem like a lot to an ordinary person, it is nothing in the brutal world of Presidential politics.  How can Huckabee be competitive when Romney can write himself a $10 million check when ever needed?

The last thing that I see being a huge problem for Huckabee is the New Hampshire primary.  Huckabee seems to be a safe bet to win Iowa.  But, if there is one state Huckabee does poorly in, its New Hampshire.  New Hampshire, I would estimate, has about half the evangelical voters that Iowa and South Carolina have and evangelicals are Huckabee's base.  Mitt Romney still looks poised to win New Hampshire.  The next big primary is South Carolina, where Huckabee's evangelical base could give him a win, but at this moment, that seems unlikely.  Romney still does very well in South Carolina and the momentum from a New Hampshire win (and subsequently Michigan and possibly Nevada), could prove to give Romney the win in South Carolina and hence knock Huckabee down and out of the race.

In short: Huckabee has come a hell of a long way in just a few weeks, but he still has a hell of a long way to come.