Dems Worst Nightmare: An Obama-McCain Race

As both the Democrats and Republicans edge ever so slightly to choosing their respective nominees, I have often speculated and analyzed, perhaps overly so, the most likely match-ups come the November general election.  

As far as things go on the GOP side, I see either Huckabee or McCain getting the nomination, which of course makes my prediction a few months ago, that Romney would be the nominee, completely wrong.  Truly, what a difference a month and a half can make----we saw the meteoric rise of Huckabee and the comeback of McCain.  We also saw the fall of Romney and Giuliani.  So, out of Huckabee and McCain, who will get the nomination?  My guess is McCain.  He looks poised to either win or do extremely well in Michigan, which he did win in 2000.  If that happens, the only real place I could see McCain being stopped is South Carolina, whose evangelical population could give Huckabee a huge win.  But even then, it's still a McCain race to lose, and in the end, I strongly believe he will be the Republican nominee.

Now, as far as the Democrats go, I have no idea.  It's clearly a 2 person race, and, at this point, I say both Clinton and Obama have a 50-50 shot at the nomination.  I could see either a Clinton or Obama win Nevada, with Obama more than likely capitalizing over his racialization of this campaign to pick up a win in South Carolina, where half the voters are African Americans.  And when you go to Super Tuesday, again, all bets are off.  Clinton looks poised to win the delegate-rich northeastern states, while Obama is looking very good in the South.  The tipping point could be California, which, by my sense, is leaning towards Clinton, but not by much.  It could very well be the determining state in this race for the Democrats.

So while I'm analyzing the potential match-ups for the general, I see Clinton and Obama being able to best just about any Republican, except McCain, where I see a huge problem for Obama.  As the latest CNN polls, just out yesterday, show, both Clinton and Obama would beat all the Republicans, with the exception of McCain, by about the same margin and by double digits.  McCain, however, is a complete different story.  Clinton beats McCain by just 2%, while Obama is statistically tied with a 1% lead.    

What's even more indicative of the troubles of a McCain candidacy for the Democrats, particularly for Obama, is evident when you take a look at the latest polling from key swing states----Ohio and Florida.  The latest Survey USA poll from Ohio has Clinton and McCain tied.  That same poll, however, shows McCain beating Obama by a large margin---47% to Obama's 38%.  In Florida, the latest Quinnipiac poll has Clinton defeating McCain by 3%, while Obama is tied with McCain.  That trend is also echoed in other states, where in fact, Clinton always outperforms Obama when matched up with McCain, although she may not when matched up with any other Republican.

The reasoning behind Clinton's edge over Obama when competing against McCain?  It's the one word Obama wants you to be scared about----experience.  Although we hear little about it in the primary campaigns, foreign policy and national security will be one of, if not the, top issue come the general election.  And when people go to the voting booths voting for a President, they want one that will make them feel safe.  Obama simply can not match up to McCain on matters of national security and foreign policy.  Regardless of whether McCain is right or wrong, the narrative going into next November will be that if you want a President who can keep you safe, choose McCain, he has the experience.  Now, again, I'm not saying it is right, but we all know that it will, without a doubt happen.  Obama's experience will be called into severe question and that, I promise, will hurt his chances with moderates and Republicans, who want a change in direction, but also want to feel safe with a candidate of experience.

Clinton, on the other hand, is the only Democrat left in the race who could stand up to McCain and say, "You may have experience, but I have that too".  When people are asked in general election polls who they trust most on foreign policy and national security, Clinton always tops Obama by a hefty margin.  Clinton can stand up to the GOP and actually counter their arguments about experience; she has experience too. 

And, god forbid, there is another terrorist attack, either here or in Europe, between now and November, the Republicans will seize that opportunity to paint Obama as inexperienced and unqualified for the job of Commander-In-Chief.  If that were to happen and Obama was the Democratic nominee, I can assure you that the Democrats will lose again if McCain is our opponent.  Clinton, in contrast, would be able to stand up and make the argument that she has just as much experience as McCain.  The country wouldn't be scared into voting Republican because the Democrat would be just as experienced.  The GOP's argument just wouldn't work against Clinton.  

So while I am fairly confident that Obama can defeat Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, etc., I am confident that he would suffer a devastating defeat going up against McCain.  Indeed, if McCain is the GOP nominee, Clinton is the Democrat's best bet.