Des Moines Register's Latest Poll Analysis

Mark Penn, chief strategist for the Clinton campaign, has a new post up at hillaryclinton.com where he tackles the latest Des Moines Register poll.  The latest DMR poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Clinton 32-25%, and this has sent the Obama campaign and many liberal Obama bloggers into a frenzy.  However, what Obama, his surrogates, and his supporters fail to mention are other polls that show a slightly different trend.  

-An Insider Advantage poll conducted 12/28-29 shows Clinton leading Obama 30%-22%.

-A Zogby poll from 12/27-30 has Clinton with a 4 point lead over Obama

-An American Research Group poll from 12/26-28 has Clinton at 31%, followed by Obama at 24%.

And to top it all off, two of the latest polls, conducted within the same time frame as the DMR's poll, shows Clinton, not Obama, coming out on top:

-A CNN poll shows Clinton in the lead with 33%, compared to 31% for Obama.

-A Reuters/C-Span poll has Clinton winning 30%-26 over Obama.

So why the clear difference in the DMR poll from other recent polls?  Here is Mark Penn's analysis:

"The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference."

So, while the DMR poll certainly has to be taken into account, it should not be taken to mean that this race is all but over, with Obama being the victor, as many have exclaimed.    The DMR poll, although historically accurate, has factored in some rather unknown and unprecedented variables.  That's why the poll must be analyzed in context with other historically accurate and recent polling.  

Bottom Line: This race is still extremely close and anyone of the top three Democrats could win the Iowa caucus and hence the nomination.