Based on recent polls, there is nothing to support Sen. Obama's arguments about his prospective performance against Sen. McCain - both Sen. Obama and Hillary start off within the margin of error against Sen. McCain. Yesterday's Fox poll showed both in a statistical tie with Sen. McCain. And Hillary's negatives are fully factored in, whereas the same cannot be said of Sen. Obama because he is - by his own admission - not as well known.
Sen. Obama's support among independents comes from Democratic-leaning independents, voters who are likely to back the eventual Democratic nominee. He has no overall advantage in the polls against Sen. McCain. But such voters have very little information about Sen. Obama. And once the Republican machine begins to methodically attack him, he will lose independent support.
So in a head to head against Sen. McCain, Sen. Obama has no advantage with swing voters. The 2004 election was determined by two key groups - women concerned about security and Latinos - and against Sen. McCain those groups could again prove decisive. President Bush won 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004 and Sen. McCain, unlike other Republicans, has been supportive of immigration reform. These are two groups that enthusiastically support Hillary.
As voters look to the future, they will be looking at who can put the country on the right path and who can defend it against future threats. While Hillary is seen as strong on defense and has served on the Armed Services Committee, Sen. Obama has limited experience on these national security issues that would again be front and center.
So if Sen. McCain is the nominee, Hillary is the one well-positioned to beat him. Already well vetted, she is ready to stand up to Sen. McCain on national security and put together a winning coalition of voters that will take back the White House."
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