First of all, let's ask ourselves what states are key to victory in November for the Democrats? If you're like me, you don't say Utah, Idaho, North Dakota, Alabama, or the like. Rather, states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio probably come to mind. Well, Survey USA just released some very interesting poll results, pitting John McCain against both Clinton and Obama in those three key states.
-Pennsylvania: Building on what I said in an earlier post, Sen. Clinton has appeal to those so called "Reagan-Democrats", which make up a large portion of voters in states such as Pennsylvania. Obama has yet to prove that he can appeal to those voters. The latest polling from Pennsylvania confirms that indeed Sen. Clinton is stronger with working class voters that Obama; she would win against McCain. On the flip side, Obama would lose by 5.
-Ohio: Good news for Democrats concerning the state of Ohio. In the latest poll, both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama lead McCain by 10%, a considerable margin. It appears Ohio is finally going blue.
-Florida: Perhaps the most notorious state in recent Presidential elections, Florida could once again prove decisive in 2008. In the latest polling, Clinton would beat McCain by a significant nine points. Obama, in contrast, would lose to McCain.
My conclusion is this: it's still way too early to say for sure which states are certain for which candidate, but these latest polls at least give us something to go by. And if you go by them, it reinforces the point I've been trying to make which is that Clinton performs better in the swing states than does Obama. Why the inconsistency with national general election polling? Here's my explanation: Obama does do better than Clinton in some southern and mountain-west states, but still does not win them. For example, in Utah, the latest polling has Clinton losing by 38, while Obama only loses by 11. This means that in national polling, he may get more pure votes, but it's the electoral votes that will decide this election. Thats why state by state polling for the general is so much more accurate than broad, national polling. In addition, these are the polls Democrats should look at when deciding which candidate is more electable. It's about winning the swing states, not almost winning the small states.
To view all of the state-by-state polling I used in this post, conducted by Survey USA, please click here.
2 comments :
I have commented on this post before that no matter what the polls show now, if Clinton is the democratic nominee, she will be the next president. The polls have been so wrong this primary season as everyone knows. That is enough said.
Plagiarized from BuzzFlash: Favorite fallacies of the Clinton "wins the important states" argument: Dave Shaw
Submitted by BuzzFlash on Fri, 03/07/2008 - 7:04pm. Reader Contribution
A BUZZFLASH READER CONTRIBUTION
by Dave Shaw
Fallacy 1: Clinton could win OH the same way she won it against Obama, by capturing the rural vote. Truth: those votes will be McCain's, which
leaves her with the cities, which Barack won. So who votes for Clinton in Ohio?
Fallacy 2: Barack didn't beat Hillary in swing states. Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, etc. prove that wrong.
Fallacy 3: Some states that were blue last time aren't trending red and are safe if Hillary is the nominee. There's Hawaii: poised to be red in the fall, unless the native son runs.
Fallacy 4: Florida is a swing state. Florida now is actually a red state, with the red apparatus in place, red rules, red voter
registration, and a red governor. The single smartest thing Democrats
can do in the fall is ignore Florida -- or make a show effort there that forces McCain to splash out some cash. But Dems will NOT carry it.
Fallacy 5: Only Hillary can win the biggest true blue big states in the
Fall because she won them in the primary. Which of these big blues will go to McCain: California, New York?
Fallacy 6: Hillary can turn out the vote to unseat a single traditionally red state. Where? By contrast, Virginia, marginally red last time, looks like a possible switch to blue with Barack at the top of the ticket. Even North Carolina and Georgia might be doable, but only if Clinton's
instant and automated GOP Get-Out-the-Vote isn't in play.
Fallacy 7: The candidates bring equal turnouts to the table. True -- but not necessarily to the benefit of the Democratic Party. One candidate brings new voters and motivated Democrats, the other brings termites out of the woodwork to vote against her. One has crossover appeal without Rush Limbaugh's help, the other doesn't. One can help downticket races,
the other drags down the ticket.
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