Well today in Ames, Iowa is the Ames Straw Poll. In the past, the Straw Poll has been able to give us a good indication of whom will win the Iowa Caucus. It also is the chance for one of the lower-tier candidates to break through the glass ceiling to become a front-runner. One can argue the validity of winning the straw poll. In all senses of the word, it is nothing but a money race. The candidate with the most money can essentially "buy" votes. This is one reason why Mitt Romney is expected to cleanly and decisively win the Straw Poll.
Now one of the reasons why someone could break out is due to the fact that three of the front-runners have decided not to compete. Those three would be Mayor Guiliani, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Fred Thompson, who has yet to declare his candidacy. One has to question their wisdom not to compete. Romney has been winning in Iowa Caucus polls with on average 10-15 percentage points ahead of Guiliani and McCain. Both may want to preserve the candidacy, for if they lost to Romney, they might have lost some national support. It would not do well for either Guiliani or McCain to be seen finishing in a distant second of third place. I still believe, however, that they should have competed. It has to feel like the two are shunning the Iowa voters. And who knows this could have been a chance for Guiliani to poll ahead of Romney. If your in it to win it, you should be in all the formalities that go along with running for president, and for the Republicans, the Ames Straw Poll is certainly one of those formalities.
With Romney expected to win first place, who will come in second, and how far behind first place will he be? Both Gov. Huckabee and Sen. Brownback are looking to capture second place. Brownback has been running ads in Iowa, criticizing Romney on his lack of leadership when it comes to abortion. Huckabee has been polling well in Iowa, most recently tied with John McCain. If either one of these men can score close to Romney's numbers, they could break out into the front-tier.
Ron Paul is my pick for the surprise candidate. He will either do extremely well, or extremely poorly, I just don't know which yet, although I hope he finishes strong. He has to be the favorite among anti-war republicans and has received massive online support. If that online support shows up at the Straw poll, expect Paul to do well, if they don't he will likely finish at the bottom of the pack.
As for Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo, both have gained support in Iowa. Expect them to finish somewhere in the middle. Duncan Hunter has not been doing well in Iowa, so expect him to finish second to last place. Now I'm not psychic, but I can and will tell you who will come in dead last. John Cox. And he'll finish last because most people have never heard of him. He hasn't even taken part in any of the debates.
With the Straw Poll today, it should be interesting to see who will break through, if anybody. I would not surprise me in the least if we see one or two of the "losers" drop out of the race after today. Some, in fact, have probably been planning to drop out, but will use the Straw Poll as an excuse. I plan on doing a follow-up blog after the results are announced.
No comments :
Post a Comment