This is it....the final quarter---my early predictions for the nominees

I think it just hit me today, this is the last day of the 3rd quarter for 2007. That means that we are essentially a little over 3 months away from the Iowa Caucus...and then New Hampshire....and South Carolina....and so on. This is the time when people really start paying attention and when candidates really get serious. Now, unlike the summer, there is absolutely no room for mistakes or slip-ups. With only a few more months to go, let me give you my predictions for what will happen in the January caucuses and primaries and the rest of the nomination process.

I'll start with the Democrats. Iowa will be the true battle-ground state, as Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are virtually tied in polls and have been for quite some time. If Clinton can win here, it's all over. She has a 20 point lead in New Hampshire and its growing. She is also polling ahead in South Carolina and Florida. Even if Edwards was to win Iowa, I don't believe he could get the nomination. He wouldn't have enough money to compete with Hillary in New Hampshire and the other states. On the other hand, if Obama wins Iowa, Hillary would face some serious problems. He is the only candidate who could match her money-wise and he could essentially use the momentum from Iowa to catapult himself through New Hampshire and so on. So my recommendation for Hillary is to do everything humanly possible to win Iowa, or at least make sure Obama doesn't win. An Obama win wouldn't necessarily end her chances, but he would make her fight for the nomination, and I'm sure thats something the Hillary campaign wouldn't like. So my prediction for the democratic nomination right now is Hillary, but as Obama continues to gain in Iowa, he might be able to make me change my prediction.

Now onto the Republican candidates. First of all I will start by saying that the Fred Thompson excitement is gone. I will guarantee that Fred will not be the nominee. I'll also confidently say that I don't think John McCain will be the nominee either. It boils down to Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani. Romney looks like a sure thing when it comes to winning the Iowa caucus. He is polling ahead in New Hampshire, but his lead there has shrunk dramatically and Rudy is gaining. If Romney can win both Iowa and New Hampshire then I see him being the nominee. However, if Rudy can win New Hampshire, or at least keep Romney from winning, then the race is wide open. Guiliani is stronger than Romney in South Carolina and Florida. They only way Romney could win those states would be to use the momentum from two huge wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, much like John Kerry in '04. So for my pick for the GOP, I'm going to go with Guiliani, but don't, by any means, count Romney out of this race. He could still very much win the GOP nomination.

And for my prediction for the general----I see a Democrat winning and I think Hillary has the best chance of any Democrat to do so. If Romney is the GOP nominee I see him being easily defeated in a general election. Guiliani would be a much stronger candidate and could potentially lead to a GOP upset in '08, although I am very skeptical it will happen.