Will Fred Thompson make an impact?

Sen. Fred Thompson announced Wednesday night on Jay Leno that he will indeed be running as a Republican for the Presidency in '08. He joins an already crowded Republican field in his hope to be nominee. The question that many are asking is how big of an impact on this race will Thompson have on the race and my answer is not much.

The only reason Thompson even has a good reason to enter this race is because polls show that Republicans are dissatisfied with their choices, but I don't think Thompson adds anything thats not already there. I suppose some expect Thompson to be the Reagan of the 21st century, but I just don't see it. Reagan had a charisma about him that Fred lacks. While he can be charming at times, Thompson fails to live up to expectations for me. He was supposed to be this rock-star candidate, but he appeared so subdued on Leno. In his campaign launch video, he looks like an 80 year old man rambling on and on while bobbing his head every second or two. When I hear him speak, he fails to energize the room because of his own lack of enthusiasm. He comes off as if he just doesn't care, as if he's going to walk in the race and win it without having to work. He waits to officially enter the race at least 6 months after everyone else already did. He has not participated in one debate and has yet to take a stance on they key issues facing our country. If his only claim to fame is that he is a "consistent conservative", its not going to be enough. Huckabee is more of a conservative than Fred ever was and is far more charismatic, yet hasn't done too well in national polls. If Republicans wanted a strict conservative, they already have one, they want the entire package, whatever that might be.

Then there is the theory of many in the media that Thompson is going to completely unravel Mitt Romney's campaign. I couldn't disagree more. Thompson isn't just going to walk in and all of a sudden get all of Romney's support in the two key states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney has spent months in those states campaigning, not to mention millions of dollars. Fred doesn't have months to campaign or millions to spend. Thompson's biggest chance to win the nomination will come if he can do a good showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, I sincerely believe Romney will win both states, and then goes on to win southern states such as South Carolina. I could see a scenario happening where Romney wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Utah, Michigan, and a few other Northeastern states. Thompson captures the south. Guiliani wins more liberal states such as Florida and California. Then you basically have a three way happening and someone would have to do the math to see who that would benefit the most.

Bottom line is I don't think your going to see Thompson live up to the hype. I don't think he's going to unravel Mitt Romney's campaign and I don't expect him to get the nomination. Right now he's getting all the attention because he's a new face, but in a couple of weeks, he'll just be another Republican candidate. I suppose its me vs. the media on this issue, but I do not believe Thompson will have a huge impact on this race at all. He will soon fade into the background.