As the mundane and rather boring Presidential election rolls on, I find myself more and more intrigued with the Senate races coming up this fall. Indeed, the Democrats will, at the very least, pick up 4 seats, bringing the number of Democrats in the Senate to 55 (54 if you don't count Lieberman). The fact is, however, that 4 is again, the LEAST number of seats the Democrats will pick up. Indeed, to tell you just how bad Republicans might have it this cycle, John Ensign, chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (RSCC), said he would consider it a "win" for Republicans if they can keep Democrats from reaching the magic number of 60. And while, at the moment, the prospect of Democrats picking up 9-10 Senate seats from Republicans seems unlikely, it is not out of the question. Here is my breakdown of the 10 seats, in competitive order, that Democrats have the best shot at winning:
1) Virginia. This once red state is going blue in 2008. Former Popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner is ahead of Republican Jim Gilmore by 25-30 points.
2) New Mexico. Tom Udall, in the latest batch of polling released, is ahead of Republican Steve Pearce by a whopping 28 points.
3) New Hampshire. Current Republican Senator John Sununu won't get re-elected. I'd put money on that one. Currently, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen holds a 14 point lead, up from 10 points last month, 7 the month before, and 4 the month before that. As can be seen, Shaheen's momentum is still growing.
4) Colorado. This is another once red state that is going blue. Mark Udall's lead over Republican Bob Schaffer has grown from a tie, to 3 points, to 7 points, and now to 10 points. Again, just like in New Hampshire, momentum is on the Democratic side.
5) Alaska. The longest serving Republican in the Senate, Ted Stevens, is locked in a tight contest with former Anchorage mayor, Mark Begich. The two most recent polls show mixed results. One has Begich up by 2 points, the other has Stevens up by 2. But again, the momentum is on Begich's side.
6) Mississippi. Just like in Alaska, one poll puts incumbent Republican Roger Wicker ahead by 1% while another poll puts former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove ahead by 1.
7) Kentucky. Yup, thats right, Mitch McConnel is in trouble. Survey USA puts McConnel up over Bruce Lunsford by only 4%, while a month old Rasmussen poll puts Lunsford up by 5. No doubt, this is going to be a close one.
8) Maine. Moderate Republican Susan Collins might meet the same fate that the politically similar Lincoln Chaffee did last cycle. She's popular within her state, but the "R" that is attached to her name will be her downfall. Right now, Collins does have a significant 7 point lead, but it's important to note that that number is down from about 16 just over two months ago. The momentum is definitely with Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.
9) Oregon. Another moderate Republican in Gordon Smith is in trouble in a heated battle against Jeff Merkley. While Smith is ahead in the race, by about 9%, Merkley has just recently captured the Democratic nomination and has already cut Smith's lead in half from earlier this year.
10) Tie:
a. Minnesota: while earlier this year, Republican Norm Coleman's seat did appear more competitive, I am convinced that Democrat Al Franken can still win this thing. Depending on which poll you look at, Coleman is ahead by only 3 (Rasmussen) or by 10 (Quinnipiac). Either way, it's a long way until election day.
b. North Carolina: Liddy Dole faces a tough challenge in Democrat Kay Hagan (who happens to be my favorite Senate candidate this cycle). Although Dole appears to have a double digit lead, Hagan proved to be very resourceful in a fairly competitive Democratic primary. Dole has spend huge amounts of cash on TV ads trying to quell the momentum Hagan had after her primary win bump, which had her within 4 points of Dole. And although that ad blitz has worked for the meanwhile, Hagan has yet to put up her own general election ads. Once she has, I am convinced this will once again become a single digit race and with Dole's unimpressive approval numbers, it's not hard to see that this North Carolina seat could once again go blue.
A few things of note:
-Increased African American turnout due to Obama's candidacy in Mississippi and North Carolina could propel Musgrove and Hagan to the Senate.
-With Barack Obama planning to campaign in Alaska and John McCain not, the feeling is that Democrats could get a huge boost in Alaska just from the fact that a Presidential candidate decided to actually show up.
-The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has a huge cash advantage over the RSCC. The DSCC is having to play defense in only one state, Louisiana. The RSCC is having to play defense in just about every state that it currently holds a seat. It's not hard to see that Democratic Senate candidates are going to be able to easily compete with Republicans even if the candidates themselves aren't able to compete with their Republican opponent.
2 comments :
I am right there with you about Kay Hagan! I've worked for Elizabeth Dole and I've worked with Kay Hagan -- it's a no brainer that North Carolinians should "see the light" and vote Kay Hagan into office. They'll certainly get a lot more representation in Washington with Hagan there. Dole is just too old and unwilling to roll up her sleeves and work! And there is no comparison between who is the brighter of the two -- Hagan!
I would like to see the democrats get to at least 60 Senate seats in order to be able to break a Republican fillibuster. Regardless who is President it is important that a Democratic majority in congress can get enough votes to get things done.
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