Hypocrisy Watch: David Vitter

It is not enough that U.S. Senator David Vitter fell off his moral mountain last summer, proving himself to be one of the biggest hypocrites in Washington, but Sen. Vitter is now trying to appease the right wing of his party by asking his conservative colleagues to sign on to his resolution that would put the Senate on record as disagreeing with the Supreme Court's ruling that rejected the death penalty for those convicted of raping a child, without murder.  

The fact is, however, that the Supreme Court has already asked attorneys educated on this issue to submit briefs on whether the high court should reconsider that ruling. So, in short, Vitter wants the Congress to get involved where it is not necessary nor warranted.  Surely, Congress has more important things to do.  The legal authorities involved will and can handle this issue very well as they have with similar situations in the past.  If Mr. Vitter really cared, he should introduce legislation to actually correct the situation as he sees fit, rather than introducing legislation that just says that he disagrees. One again, it's talk, not action, for Vitter and the Republican Party. 

Road to Victory: Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)

Road to Victory: Tom Udall (New Mexico)

2008 Senate Elections: The Ad Wars

In a follow-up to a post I wrote a few nights ago concerning the top 10 Senate races most likely to flip from Republican to Democratic control this November, I want to share with you some of the great ads our Democratic challengers are going up on the air with:

First, as I've said before, the one candidate who I really would like to see make it to the Senate: Kay Hagan.  In this ad, Hagan focuses on the energy crisis:

Tom Allen is up on the air in Maine promising to, unlike Incumbent Susan Collins, to fight for the middle class:

Colorado's Mark Udall has an ad, similarly to Hagan in North Carolina, tackling the energy crisis:

Here's another ad from Mark Udall, this one focusing on foreign policy and national security: 

This is Kentucky's Bruce Lunsford first ad of the campaign in his bid to oust Mitch McConnel:

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen tackles Big Oil in this ad:

Here's a second ad from Shaheen talking about putting people first:

In this ad, Al Franken talks about the toll the Iraq War is taking on America domestically:

Mark Begich, in this ad, talks about his biography in Alaska and all he has accomplished for Alaskans as mayor of Anchorage:

Another great biographical ad is this one from New Mexico's Tom Udall:

This ad from Virginia's Mark Warner deals with all Warner did as Governor of Virginia and why his bi-partisan approach is the right one to clean up Washington:

Oregon's Jeff Merkley is up with this ad challenging Gordon Smith:

Election '08: My Senate Rankings

As the mundane and rather boring Presidential election rolls on, I find myself more and more intrigued with the Senate races coming up this fall.  Indeed, the Democrats will, at the very least, pick up 4 seats, bringing the number of Democrats in the Senate to 55 (54 if you don't count Lieberman).  The fact is, however, that 4 is again, the LEAST number of seats the Democrats will pick up.  Indeed, to tell you just how bad Republicans might have it this cycle, John Ensign, chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (RSCC), said he would consider it a "win" for Republicans if they can keep Democrats from reaching the magic number of 60.  And while, at the moment, the prospect of Democrats picking up 9-10 Senate seats from Republicans seems unlikely, it is not out of the question.  Here is my breakdown of the 10 seats, in competitive order, that Democrats have the best shot at winning:

1) Virginia.  This once red state is going blue in 2008.  Former Popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner is ahead of Republican Jim Gilmore by 25-30 points.  

2) New Mexico.  Tom Udall, in the latest batch of polling released, is ahead of Republican Steve Pearce by a whopping 28 points.  

3) New Hampshire.  Current Republican Senator John Sununu won't get re-elected.  I'd put money on that one.  Currently, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen holds a 14 point lead, up from 10 points last month, 7 the month before, and 4 the month before that.  As can be seen, Shaheen's momentum is still growing.  

4) Colorado.  This is another once red state that is going blue.  Mark Udall's lead over Republican Bob Schaffer has grown from a tie, to 3 points, to 7 points, and now to 10 points.  Again, just like in New Hampshire, momentum is on the Democratic side.

5) Alaska.  The longest serving Republican in the Senate, Ted Stevens, is locked in a tight contest with former Anchorage mayor, Mark Begich.  The two most recent polls show mixed results.  One has Begich up by 2 points, the other has Stevens up by 2.  But again, the momentum is on Begich's side.

6) Mississippi.  Just like in Alaska, one poll puts incumbent Republican Roger Wicker ahead by 1% while another poll puts former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove ahead by 1.  

7) Kentucky.  Yup, thats right, Mitch McConnel is in trouble.  Survey USA puts McConnel up over Bruce Lunsford by only 4%, while a month old Rasmussen poll puts Lunsford up by 5.  No doubt, this is going to be a close one.  

8) Maine.  Moderate Republican Susan Collins might meet the same fate that the politically similar Lincoln Chaffee did last cycle.  She's popular within her state, but the "R" that is attached to her name will be her downfall.  Right now, Collins does have a significant 7 point lead, but it's important to note that that number is down from about 16 just over two months ago.  The momentum is definitely with Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.  

9) Oregon.  Another moderate Republican in Gordon Smith is in trouble in a heated battle against Jeff Merkley.  While Smith is ahead in the race, by about 9%, Merkley has just recently captured the Democratic nomination and has already cut Smith's lead in half from earlier this year.  

10) Tie: 

a. Minnesota: while earlier this year, Republican Norm Coleman's seat did appear more competitive, I am convinced that Democrat Al Franken can still win this thing.  Depending on which poll you look at, Coleman is ahead by only 3 (Rasmussen) or by 10 (Quinnipiac).  Either way, it's a long way until election day.

b. North Carolina: Liddy Dole faces a tough challenge in Democrat Kay Hagan (who happens to be my favorite Senate candidate this cycle).  Although Dole appears to have a double digit lead, Hagan proved to be very resourceful in a fairly competitive Democratic primary.  Dole has spend huge amounts of cash on TV ads trying to quell the momentum Hagan had after her primary win bump, which had her within 4 points of Dole.  And although that ad blitz has worked for the meanwhile, Hagan has yet to put up her own general election ads.  Once she has, I am convinced this will once again become a single digit race and with Dole's unimpressive approval numbers, it's not hard to see that this North Carolina seat could once again go blue.   

A few things of note: 

-Increased African American turnout due to Obama's candidacy in Mississippi and North Carolina could propel Musgrove and Hagan to the Senate.

-With Barack Obama planning to campaign in Alaska and John McCain not, the feeling is that Democrats could get a huge boost in Alaska just from the fact that a Presidential candidate decided to actually show up.  

-The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has a huge cash advantage over the RSCC.  The DSCC is having to play defense in only one state, Louisiana.  The RSCC is having to play defense in just about every state that it currently holds a seat.  It's not hard to see that Democratic Senate candidates are going to be able to easily compete with Republicans even if the candidates themselves aren't able to compete with their Republican opponent.  

Pelosi and Reid Say "No More" To Bush

Finally, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are taking a firm stand against the Iraq War. Both Pelosi and Reid plan to present President Bush with a $50 billion measure for the Iraq War with the condition that the President begins to bring this disaster of a war to an end. This will be the toughest worded spending bill for the Iraq War since Democrats took control of Congress back last November. And if Bush goes against the wishes of the American people and vetoes the spending bill, he will not get his (and I emphasize "his") war funded for the rest of this year and possibly longer.

Even though I am enthralled that Democrats in Congress are finally taking strong, progressive steps to end the Iraq War debacle, I must admit that I wish it didn't come to this. I have stated in the past that it is the Republicans' responsibility to do what the American people want and bring this war to a safe end. Democrats have been fighting to end this war for years, but they simply do not have the numbers to overcome the Republicans. Pelosi and Reid do get unfairly blamed for not ending the war. Americans should not get angry at the Democrats for not ending the war, they should instead put pressure on the Republicans. It is the Republicans who keep the war going; not the Democrats.

With that being said, it is pretty clear that the Republicans weren't going to do the right thing. They refuse to break with their President and they continue to support a failed policy. So what were Pelosi and Reid going to do? I certainly do not think that funding should just be cut off all together. The troops, as Joe Biden has artfully pointed out, deserve to get the equipment that they need. Yet, at the same time, I feel we are doing them just as much harm by not ending this war. So what are we going to do?

Well, in Pelosi and Reid's proposal, I find a sort of "middle-ground." The Democrats are not cutting off funding for the troops; if anything, they are helping them. It is now on George Bush's hands to decide what course will be taken. Will he defy Congress and the American people yet again by continuing the war? Or will he finally recognize that the war is doing nothing but harming America in every way possible? If Bush does the former, he will be in essence cutting the funding off himself. It will then be the responsibility of the Republican's in Congress to override Bush's veto. If they don't, then they will be to blame for not supporting the troops. The Iraq War is no longer a partisan issue; Americans want it to end. And as usual, it is the Democrats who fight and who will continue to fight for the American people. I pray that the President and the GOP do the right thing and support this bill and begin to bring our brave men and women home...where they belong.

Another Sign of Democrats' Strength Heading into '08

It has been said that 2008 should be another very good year for Democrats as far as elections are concerned. As I was checking out some Senate campaign sites today, I found one that really attested to the strength of the Democratic party.

It is generally agreed upon that just about all of the Democratic Senate seats up for reelection in '08 are safe, except for one. That one Democratic seat that many have said could go to Republicans is that of Senior Louisiana Senator, Mary Landrieu. What shocked me is that although that sentiment is that Landrieu very well could lose in '08, she has raised five times the amount of cash she did in the 3rd quarter during the 2002 campaign. During the last two quarters, she has raised $3.4 million. That, for a small state Senator who many expect to lose, is extremely impressive. It is just another sign of the Democrats' strength, especially considering Louisiana is trending more and more Republican.

It is also important to note that the GOP has not yet announced a candidate to challenge Landrieu in 2008. From what I've heard, Republicans are having a problem finding someone with enough electability to go up against Landrieu. So, if the Democrat who is most expected to lose in '08 has raised $3.4 million so far, and doesn't even have a challenger, I guess that says a lot about the Republican Party----it's in shambles.

On a side note, Sen. Landrieu's brother, current Lousiaina Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, is rumored to challenge David "I'm a family man even though I higher prostitutes" Vitter for the Senate in 2010.

Warner won't seek re-election

Republican Senator John Warner of Virginia announced that he will not seek a sixth term in the 2008 election. Warner was first elected in 1978 and is now 80 years old. While Warner claims he currently feels good enough to run for Senator again, he doesn't want to make a six year commitment to the people of Virginia and then not be able to fulfill it:

"I want to be fair to this wonderful state, which has been eminently fair to me all these years. You’ve given me my best shot, and I’m quietly gong to step aside and make way for others."

Warner, I must say, has my respect. He, unlike many Republicans, has stood up and questioned the President and his administration on several issues, most recently stating that he feels we need to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq. Warner stood up for what he believed in and for that, I salute him.

But then there is of course the question of who will run for Warner's vacant Senate seat. If Warner ran again in '08, he would have been hard to defeat, but now the democrats have an excellent chance of winning another seat in the Senate. The most likely democrat to run is former Governor Mark Warner. Former Republican Governor, and former presidential candidate, Jim Gilmore, has stated his interest in running for the Senate as well. If Mark Warner and Gilmore are the two going head to head in the general election, I would bet that Mark Warner would score the victory. His popularity has lasted since he left the Governor's Mansion and Warner has always found a way to connect with voters. Expect to see the democrats jump on this opportunity and score a Senate seat victory.