VP Update

NBC News is now reporting that Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine have been informed that they will not be the Vice-Presidential choice of Barack Obama.  So, on that note, I suppose that you can disregard that previous announcement.  

So I guess that leaves us with Joe Biden or a surprise pick.  We'll just have to wait and see.  

Veepstakes: Prediction Time

First let's take a look at the Republican side:  Who's most likely to be John McCain's Veep.  Here's my predictions:

#3: Tom Ridge.  That's right, the former Pennsylvania governor is the third most likely man to be chosen as McCain's Vice-Presidential nominee.  Why?  For starters, McCain likes Ridge.  Ridge is probably who McCain would most like to pick.  The only problem, of course, is that Ridge is pro-choice, and McCain has previously said that it is unlikely he would choose a pro-choice running mate.  Still, Ridge could shift Pennsylvania to McCain and hence throw a huge curve ball into the Democrats' plan to regain the White House.  For that reason alone, Ridge has got to be in serious contention.

#2: Tim Pawlenty.  Pawlenty would be a very interesting choice.  Why is he #2?  Again, McCain likes Pawlenty.  Pawlenty was one of the first politicians to endorse McCain during the primaries and McCain has always been good friends with the Minnesota governor.  Add to the mix that Pawlenty could put Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes in to play and Pawlenty is the second most likely pol to be named McCain's number two.

#1: Mitt Romney.  Indeed if I had to place money on it, I'd say McCain has already decided on Romney.  I'm not sure why as Romney doesn't exactly do that much for McCain.  He might put Michigan in to play, but thats about it.  Also, Romney is conventional wisdom.  Everyone in the media expects it to be Romney.  If McCain truly wants announcing his VP to give him some much needed media attention, shouldn't he pick someone that would be a little less expected?  It's not a wise choice by McCain, but then again, McCain hasn't exactly been making wise choices as of late.

As for as the Veepstakes on the Democratic side go, everything is much less clear.  Everyone in the political world has a different opinion.  I'm positive that McCain's VP will be from the above list, and 95% sure it's Romney, but I could be completely off with Obama's list.  But here goes nothing...

#3: Hillary Clinton.  Many people don't think the "dream ticket" has a chance of happening.  I'm very skeptical myself.  But there is a chance.  Obama wants the fundraising prowess of the "Hillraisers" and the only way he's going to get it 100% is to pick Hillary.  In addition to the money issue, Hillary also gives Obama great strength in the "rust-belt" states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and even Michigan.  

#2: Tim Kaine.  Obama wants to win Virginia.  If there's one state Obama is intent on flipping this cycle, it's Virginia and what better way to get a head start than by putting its very popular governor on the ticket?  

#1: Evan Bayh.  One doesn't hear much about Bayh, but I will guarantee Obama is looking at him seriously.  With recent polls showing the race in Indiana, a traditionally Republican state, so close, Bayh could help Obama grab this red state come November.  Add to that Bayh's executive experience as governor of Indiana as well as his foreign policy experience from being in the Senate and Bayh is as good of a pick as any for the Vice-Presidency.  

(In addition to the 3 previous names, I believe that Joe Biden and perhaps even Jack Reed are in contention for the #2 slot.  I don't think either would be particularly great or exciting choices, but I do believe they are on the elusive list.)

Choosing a Vice-President (Democrats)

Well, two of my favorite candidates for Vice-President have already taken their name out of running: Gov. Strickland of Ohio and Sen. Webb of Virginia.  With those two once potential veeps no longer potentials, I'm going to run down those who are considered to be in the top tier of choices as well as those who I think would bring the most to the ticket.

1) Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.  No, no, no...and again...no.  I don't know how to be any more clear than that.  Don't get me wrong, I like her.  She's been a great, bi-partisan governor who has helped raise the profile of Democrats in one of the reddest states in America.  With that being said, however, she is boring.  She's not exactly someone who could hold her own in a town-hall meeting or a rally.  She doesn't even come across that great when being interviewed on television.  And the truth is, what more does she bring to the ticket?  Even with Sebelius, Obama is not going to win Kansas.  And it's not exactly like she has appeal in any other states.

2) Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia.  I just don't see Tim as ready for the national spot light yet.  He appears messy on camera and I don't think we've seen enough of him to know if he could be a good campaigner.  Again, a good governor, but not right for Vice-President.

3) Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico.  I used to be very high on Judas...I mean...Bill Richardson.  He has everything Obama lacks: executive experience, foreign policy credentials, popularity among Hispanics (although Obama has made great in roads), from a state in a swing region, the Southwest, etc.  But after the betrayal of Sen. Clinton and the bitter taste he left in the mouthes of all her supporters, Sen. Obama would not (or at least, should not) dare put Richardson on the ticket.  If you think Obama has a problem consolidating the support of Hillary's supporters and fundraisers now, just think what it would be like if Richardson was on the ticket.  

4) Senator Joe Biden of Delaware.  The Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Sam Nunn route is the wrong way to go for Obama.  Don't get me wrong, I like Joe Biden, but he adds nothing to the ticket.  Obama is going to win every state in the Northeast and Biden wouldn't help in any other region.  The main consideration for Biden, of course, is his foreign policy experience.  But Biden, along with Dodd and Nunn and all their foreign policy credentials, would be a boring choice.  Barack Obama is a rockstar.  He needs someone who doesn't drag down the ticket. In other words, I just can't picture Obama and Biden standing next to each other.  I can't picture Biden rallying up supporters.  I just don't see it.    

5) Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana.  Now here's one of my favorite choices.  Bayh fits the Vice-Presidential checklist to a "T". He has executive experience, he's from a critical swing state, he's a centrist who has proven to have huge appeal to Republicans and independent voters, he's a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and Select Intelligence Committee and therefore has national security credentials, and plus, he has the look of a President, or in the case, Vice-President.  He's still very young (52) yet has extensive experience.  I like this guy a lot and if Obama doesn't pick my #6, he should take Bayh.  

6) Senator Hillary Clinton of New York.  Plain and simple: Hillary should be Vice-President.  She's earned it.  Hell, she received more votes in the primaries than Barack Obama.  Plus, she ensures party unity, which seems to be on a rocky roadat the moment (with polls still showing as much as 35% of Hillary supporters backing McCain or not voting at all).  More importantly however, Hillary has strong pull in swing states.  As Chris Matthews wisely pointed out a week ago, Barack Obama might want to expand the map, which is all well and good, but all he has to do to win the White House is hold Kerry's states and win Ohio. And, to continue what Matthews said, Obama can win Ohio today by picking Hillary as VP.  In addition to Ohio, Clinton also helps Obama expand his map by making states such as Arkansas and even Kentucky and Tennessee more competitive.  And if basically guaranteeing Obama the White House wasn't enough of a reason to pick Hillary as VP, she also brings her foreign policy experience and her ability to connect with working class "Reagan Democrats" in a way few politicians ever have.